Flawed NBA Logic: The Mid-Market Dilemma

There are only a handful of elite, championship level players in the NBA at any given point (This is Kobe, LeBron, Dwight, Duncan, Paul - the top 10-15 players of the league). Those players usually find their first team through the draft, and then have a decision to make after their rookie contracts up about whether they will stay loyal to the draft city or "take their talents" somewhere else.

Cities like Milwaukee, Cleveland, Toronto and others really only have one way to acquire this elite talent - through the draft. This is because teams don't usually trade the elite level players. This is because the franchises with the elite players can pair that player with a decent supporting group and the franchise has a realistic shot at a title every year. Very rarely will a team w/ Dwight Howard or Tim Duncan lose 50 games (unless the rare circumstances of injuries like David Robinson in '96 and Dwayne Wade in '07).

So the small market dilemma begins because teams don't want to trade the elite players and elite players don't want to go to small market franchises through free agency. Sacramento had enough money to pay a max free agent, but did anybody even suggest James, Wade, Bosh, or even some of the lesser stars could end up there? The Kings were filtered out of the conversation before it even started just because they are the Kings.

Now we have small market teams w/ limited options in acquiring talent. They can't OVERPAY in free agency because the elite players are worth every penny of a max contract, and that's even if a mid-market could convince a elite player to come to their city. They can give a star (not a superstar) a max contract, eating up their cap space, but they can't lure a superstar to their city. The draft is basically the ONLY real option.

This creates the situation where teams are tanking seasons. Teams want to better their chances of landing elite talent and the only way to do that is to get more ping pong balls. In a sense, the NBA is rewarding teams for losing by giving them an unequal chance of landing top picks based on how bad they do. Do you think teams would tank seasons if a team that just missed the playoffs had the same odds as the teams with the worst records? No, teams would be fighting for wins, not draft odds.

With teams tanking for top picks, the gap between the good teams and the bad teams is widening, especially when, in some cases, the bad teams are not even trying to win or get better. They are hoping to get the draft pick of all draft picks (LeBron, Duncan, Wall, Rose) that makes inept managing decisions not as much of a factor. When teams land the pick, they are almost certain to compete at a high level through the duration of the superstars rookie contract and any extensions he is willing to sign. So the bad teams are perpetually bad, actually fighting to stay bad so they have a chance at the lottery sweepstakes.

Then we have the mediocre teams that get stuck because their options are limited. The Atlanta Hawks inked Joe Johnson to massive deal this summer. They were a team in league contention, but not necessarily a title contending team. They throw max money at Johnson, restricting future player movement just to keep the same team intact that wasn't really in contention anyway. What are there other options? Under bidding on Johnson, letting another team poach him away? Then they are back to rebuilding and going through the same scenario when Josh Smith and Al Horford come to the end of their contracts. The Hawks need an elite player to get over the hump. However, they are too good to draft one, and none of the teams w/ elite players are in rush to deal theirs.

Then there is the lottery within the lottery. Not all lotteries are equal, Ask Toronto. Bargnani is not a terrible player but it was just a watered down draft. There was no Rose, Duncan or LeBron that can turn a franchise around without much help. So teams aren't only competing for draft odds, there making an even more concerted effort when the draft prize is larger.

So this is the flawed logic of the way the NBA is set up. Good teams need to be super efficient and penny wise to become great without rebuilding, great teams are often great due to uncontrollable circumstances (a lucky ping pong bounce, injuries derailing an entire season, cities being a desirable location for free agents, etc.), and bad teams are fighting hard to stay bad - so a ping pong ball can make them good or great.

Obviously the NBA can't make every team equal in market size or city desirability. But they can put a system in place that doesn't encourage losing. In my opinion, it all starts with the lottery. This needs to change.

How Filthy? Antoine Walker Edition

How filthy is inspired to take a look at some recent players at their finest hour in the NBA. Too often I tend to remember athletes as the aged veteran or wounded star. How Filthy? will focus on the prime cut of meat from a players career. Like Larry Bird said in 1986, "All I know is people tend to forget how great the older great players were. It'll happen that way with me, too." Let's not let that happen. Let's remember just how filthy these players were.

Antoine Walker has led career filled with high peaks and deep valleys. A McDonald's All-American, standout at The University of Kentucky, and 3 All-Star Game selections are equally as impressive as his ability to launch 3-pointers at an unconscionable rate, his predilection for turning the ball over (led the league in '97-98), or the way he went bankrupt after earning over $108 million during his NBA career.

Walker peeked in the 2000-01 season at the age of 24. While playing 42 minutes a game for the Celtics, Antoine scored a career high 23.4 ppg, had a career high 5.5 apg, and was rebounding at a rate of 8.9 per contest. His notoriously low shooting percentage fell right at his career average of a shade over 41%. He managed to lead the league in 3-point attempts in 3 consecutive years despite never even approaching a respectable 3-point %. To be more blunt, Walker was a forward who took 10+ free throws in only 3 games during his peak season, but attempted 10+ 3-pointers in 22 games. One game in 2001, Walker attempted 17 3s, making 6. These are staggering stats!

This grainy video is practically a "how to" instruction manual for having a terrible shooting percentage. This trick shot goes in despite being defended by 3 players


Here is a video of Walker highlights that includes college highlights, pro highlights, and plenty of Walker's patented "shimmies"

This video makes you wonder how the dunking college player turned into a lethargic NBA player that fell in love with the 3-point shot

The YouTube vault was relatively empty for Antoine. The highest returned results were for his ridiculous shimmy

So how filthy was Antoine Walker? 2 trash cans of filth for a waste of potential and inefficiency

How Filthy? Harold Miner Edition

How filthy is inspired to take a look at some recent players at their finest hour in the NBA. Too often I tend to remember athletes as the aged veteran or wounded star. How Filthy? will focus on the prime cut of meat from a players career. Like Larry Bird said in 1986, "All I know is people tend to forget how great the older great players were. It'll happen that way with me, too." Let's not let that happen. Let's remember just how filthy these players were.

Harold Miner was dubbed "Baby Jordan" for his outstanding dunking abilities. The 6'5" guard jumped to the NBA after posting a 23.5 scoring average (and getting named 1st team all-american) through his 3 years at USC. With the "Baby Jordan" nickname, a high college scoring average, and being selected 12th overall by the Miami Heat in 1992, expectations were high.

Unfortunately, Miner could never fulfill those expectations. Statistically speaking, Miner was an NBA no show. He only lasted 4 years in the league and topped out at 10.5 points per game in his second year. He didn't care to much for rebounding or passing, and had limited range on his jumper, attempting only 15 3-pointers in his first 2,700+ minutes of NBA action. This is a problem when playing the position of "shooting" guard.

Miner is most well-known for winning the dunk contest in both 1993 and 1995. Here is a condensed video of the '95 contest

Observations from that video:
-Tony Dumas choked in the moment. If I remember correctly (I was 9 so I could definitely be wrong), Dumas kept pumping up his super-secret dunk he was going to pull off in the finals to win the contest. So it became a slight problem when he couldn't even land a dunk in the first round, effectively eliminating himself

-Miner had some legit hops. Maybe his nickname would have suited him better if it solely focused on Jordan's dunking ability and disqualified the title from any other part of Jordan or Miner's games. Harold "Dunks like Jordan, plays like Jon Koncak" Miner - it doesn't really roll off the tongue but you get the point

-Alonzo Mourning's suit should be outlawed

-Isaiah Rider is probably high... right now

Anyway, Miner was traded from the Heat to the Cavs, and was cut by the Cavs after seeing limited minutes. He attempted to sign with the Raptors in 1996 but didn't make the cut. Since his retirement Miner has given very few interviews and stays far removed from the spotlight.

Here is a 10 minute mix of Miner, just in case you can't fall asleep


So how filthy was Harold Miner? Miner avoids 0 trash cans and 1/2 a trash can by impressing me in the dunk contest. 1 whole trash can out of 5 of filth!


PS. Harold could not even get a full bar of dunk rating in NBA Jam... Haters

Movie Review: SonicsGate

This is a heart-wrenching documentary about the Seattle Sonics getting relocated to Oklahoma City. I was pleasantly surprised how much I enjoyed this film. It is a bit dry and long but I don't mind those type of films. For the short attention span people, it may bore you to death. There is a lot of lawyer speak and passionate fans expressing themselves in angry and emotional ways.

It started out with a short history which I found interesting. I remembered Kemp, Payton, Schrempf, and George Karl, but learning about Lenny Wilkins, Spencer Haywood, Jack Sikma, Tom Chambers and the other old schoolers improved my overall basketball history knowledge. Where else can you learn about these guys without having seen them first-hand? We find out about the Sonics early championship, and the passion of the sports town. They tell the story behind the incompetent and dishonest ownership groups buying and selling the team.

We find out that Key Arena is not very functional for the NBA business model. With Key Arena not being able to generate revenue to make a profit, even if it were operating at max capacity every night, and the tax payers not wanting to pay for a new arena, the relocation topic becomes almost unavoidable. So the team gets sold to a group from Oklahoma City, with no investors from Seattle in the group, and the former ownership is surprised that the team may be relocated. Hmmmmmm, who would have thunk that?

But the new owner of the Sonics gets caught in a web of lies that basically show the city that he had no intentions of keeping the team in Seattle. He then tries to lie his way out of those lies, which almost never works (especially for me, personally). This leads to court case in which Seattle is trying to keep the team due to the new ownership being full of shit.

This is where one of the real losers of the film steps in. The Mayor of Seattle comes to the rescue of the city. Then he gets promptly turned into the goat (not G.O.A.T.) of the film. He championed the people until a few bucks for the city were waved in his face. Before a verdict was reached in the court case, the mayor settles the case out of court for money for the city. Some people on the documentary think that it was possible the team could have remained in Seattle after the verdict. I'm not so convinced this was the case.

The film also tends to paint David Stern as a prick. It just seems like sour grapes. Just because he wasn't behind the effort for the Seattle to keep their faulty business model, they clip together a bunch of scenes that make him look grumpy and unsympathetic.

Overall, I would recommend the film. I don't have too many other documentaries to compare it to, but I'll give it 4 of 5 stars. The length of the film (2:00) could turn some people off, but my advice is: if it looks interesting to you, give it a shot.

Here is the film in it's entirety

How Filthy? Tom Chambers Edition

How filthy is inspired to take a look at some recent players at their finest hour in the NBA. Too often I tend to remember athletes as the aged veteran or wounded star. How Filthy? will focus on the prime cut of meat from a players career. Like Larry Bird said in 1986, "All I know is people tend to forget how great the older great players were. It'll happen that way with me, too." Let's not let that happen. Let's remember just how filthy these players were.

Most people remember Tom Chambers as a dunking machine. He was also the league's first unrestricted free agent, switching from the Seattle Sonics to the Phoenix Suns. I find this interesting due to the recent circus of free agency were going through. Chambers was drafted 8th overall in 1981 by the San Diego Clippers out of Utah after averaging 18.5 points as a senior.

Chambers was a four time all-star, and even won the All-Star Game MVP in his first appearance during the 1986-87 season. Despite his reputation of being selfish (his teammates were pretty outspoken about this), he and Kevin Johnson formed a near unstoppable duo with the Suns. Check out some of their chemistry together.



Tom's best statistical season came during his second year in Phoenix during the '89-90 campaign. He scored 27.2 points per game (4th in the league) and grabbed 7 rebounds a game, while shooting over 50% from the field. Teaming with Kurt Rambis inside, the Suns had one of the more goofy looking front courts in NBA history. During the 1990 season Tom had games of 56 and 60 points. Here is footage of the 60 point game against his former team, The Sonics.



Here is a few of his huge dunks




So how filthy is Chambers? 2/5 trash cans of filth

How Filthy? Glen Rice Edition

How filthy is inspired to take a look at some recent players at their finest hour in the NBA. Too often I tend to remember athletes as the aged veteran or wounded star. How Filthy? will focus on the prime cut of meat from a players career. Like Larry Bird said in 1986, "All I know is people tend to forget how great the older great players were. It'll happen that way with me, too." Let's not let that happen. Let's remember just how filthy these players were.

As a 19 year old college sophomore, Glen Rice took 12 3-pointers in 1,056 minutes for the Michigan Wolverines. As a senior, he attempted 192 and made 99 (51.6%) in 1258 minutes. He also took home the Final Four Most Outstanding Player Award and National Championship. This a quite a leap in confidence and skill. I always remember him as a sharpshooter, and after watching some video, I was absolutely correct. I thought he relied more on catch and shoot 3-pointers more than he actually did, only making 6 or more 3-points in 16 games during his career. Instead he had a variety of options in his arsenal, including a post-up and curling off-ball screens

His peak was at the age of 29 during the 1996-97 season for the Charlotte Hornets. However, his career high came at age 27 when he poured in 56 points on 20 of 27 shooting from the field and 7 of 8 on 3-pointers. Take a look



But back to '96-97. During this season he posted a career high for points per game with 26.8, ranking 3rd in the NBA behind Michael Jordan and Karl Malone. He led the league in minutes played and 3-point percentage. He earned an All-NBA second team selection and generally lit it up night in and night out. His 16 games of 35 points or more prove that. Pictured above is Rice holding his All-Star Game MVP Trophy. He earned it by scoring 26 points for the Eastern Conference during the mid-season classic. He did have to chuck quite a bit to get the trophy, shooting 24 shots in 25 minutes. The classic moment of this season was Rice and Jordan going shot for shot in a head to head match-up. Watch until the end and you will not be disappointed!



Rice got one championship title with the Lakers in 2000. His production fell off sharply after he left LA. He played for 4 teams in his final 5 seasons, bouncing around to the Lakers, Knicks, and Rockets before being waived by the Clippers. To express his fall from the elite even further, he was traded late in his career with 3 2nd round picks for John Amaechi and one 2nd round pick. That is just stunning


So how filthy is Glen Rice? 3/5 Trash Cans of filth

Was I The Last To Know?

LeBron, the best basketball player on the planet, switched teams last night. If I am the first person bringing that to your attention, congratulations for coming out of that coma. I don't believe he handled the whole ordeal very well, but how do you handle something of that magnitude perfectly? After the decision, my Facebook was buzzing about the decision. Almost every post and comment pertained to LeBron, which got annoying after a while. Then, someone would have a completely random status like, "Pamela Waters interesting article for those of you interested in gender/sexuality issues..." That pissed me off even more. Why doesn't she give LeBron the attention he so desperately wanted for himself? I was kind of assuming my news feed was like a LeBron James exclusive channel and then I get my focus broken by that bit of random information. Pissing me off!

I live in Northeastern Ohio and I assumed all along Lebron was going to stay in Cleveland. I figured, he just wants everyone to talk about and salivate over him for a few months, then he can return to his goal of winning a championship in Cleveland. I got information from newspapers, blogs, ESPN, LeBron related tweets, and blogs about LeBron related tweets. I became so immersed in LeBron rumors that I couldn't determine any kind of accurate reporting from something a guy with his own blog (like me) could make up with his wildest imagination. So my judgment was clouded. I read stories with my heart. I rationalized everything from the perspective that he wouldn't ever leave. I wholeheartedly believed he was staying. My first bit of doubt came when the ESPN poll showed that 47 states believed LeBron was going to the Heat (hmmmmm, maybe something is up). Still, at that point it wasn't a done deal to me. Not until I heard it from The Kings mouth.

Then he dropped the bomb. I wondered, "was I the last person to know this was about to happen?" The answer to that is a resounding 'yes'. I predetermined LeBron's decision based on emotions, mine and his perceived emotions. However, LeBron made his decision without his emotions. This was a decision where less research was actually more. The more I read and the more I thought, the more I got confused.

But I can't hate on the way this guy plays basketball. I can't hate on the way he promoted himself and captured peoples attention that would have otherwise refused to care. I can't hate on him because he left - Cleveland doesn't own him. But I can hate on how poor of a speaker he is. With as much respect for LeBron as I have (a hell of a lot), he is terrible at expressing himself and even using words correctly. Let's take a look:

LeBron says this to start the interview, "This whole free-agent experience, I'm looking forward to it."

I was assuming the whole free agent experience was ending in four minutes with his decision? Oh, there are other players in the league aside from LeBron? Ok, I get it now

"The last time I changed my mind was probably in my dreams, and when I woke up this morning I knew it was the right decision."

Mark my words: dream interpretation is going to become vogue. Sometimes I have dreams when I sleep, too. Sometimes I even follow my dreams. However, my dreams don't determine an entire state's economy and the landscape of any professional sports leagues. I can picture LeBron's dream now. He, Bosh and Wade are all giant centaurs, riding from NBA city to NBA city, destroying everything in their path. They crush The Pringles guy, Mike D'Antoni, and his wizardry in New York before heading to Detroit to fight with the Gargoyle Charlie Villanueva, only stopping in Cleveland to pillage all the women and children and to relieve themselves. LeBron wakes up, and the decision is made.

When asked about the Cleveland fans feelings, LeBron says, "They can have mixed emotions, of course."

Now that we have your permission, Mr. King, our emotions are becoming extremely mixed

"Put the shoe on the other foot. If the Cavs would have got rid of me at one point, would my family burn down the organization? Of course not."

Umm, this one is debatable...

"If I draw a guy and Joel Anthony is under the rim, he has to make plays."

Spoiler alert: LeBron's first move as GM of Heat is to resign Joel Anthony

"One thing that you can't control is you never know. You never know"

Not if you learn, LeBron. If you learn what you don't know, you can control it

When asked if he had any doubts about his decision, his reply was, "No. I don't have any doubts at all."

So you just decided the morning of the interview to go to Miami after deliberating for months, and you have no doubts? I had doubts about what I ate for breakfast yesterday morning and the only consequence to that was the 350 calories I put in my body. Maybe once they go 82-0 next season I will believe that.

"It's been a huge -- it's been heavy on me a lot."

I think he was looking for the word burden, couldn't find it, and abandoned it mid analogy. But, hey, it happens to us all. However, In my dream (that led me to make this post) I nailed every question asked to me by Bill Simmons on the special programming show about me that was aired by ESPN The Ocho. Every stinking one!

"And like I said before, I just thank all those teams that have come to Cleveland and us have those interviews and have that process"

Problem 1: You never thanked all the teams before
Problem 2: That doesn't make sense

With all the poking fun and bitterness out of the way, I would like to point out one more thing. The trio of James-Wade-Bosh, if they play as a team and focus solely on wins, will be very, very good. I could see LeBron averaging 22-11-10 on a team that doesn't lose too often. And I really think Wade will lead them in scoring.

John Hollinger of ESPN estimated their win total at 61. Dave Berri of The Wages of Wins Journal estimates them at 55 - playing teams 3 against 5. Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference says the statistical plus/minus suggests they could win 68 games. My prediction, assuming they add a few solid role players, is that they break the linear equation of efficiency and win OVER 100% of their games. You heard it here first.

I'll be interested to see how they fill in the Heat roster. Do they add a point guard or just let James and Wade split the duties? Do they get a big center or run like hell with Bosh in the middle? Maybe they fill their open spots by bringing Mark Price and Brad Daugherty out of retirement, because the knife could go even deeper in Cleveland's back.

Closing Thoughts
What is Cleveland's next course of actions? Is Wally Szczerbiak still available?

Gilbert's open letter? He will regret that but I'm glad he called James out

Did they really think that involving the Boys and Girls Club would mitigate the damage? That's like trying to stop a freight train by throwing a new born baby at it. Sorry for that imagery.

Now I feel a lot better. Whew