Flawed NBA Logic: The Mid-Market Dilemma

There are only a handful of elite, championship level players in the NBA at any given point (This is Kobe, LeBron, Dwight, Duncan, Paul - the top 10-15 players of the league). Those players usually find their first team through the draft, and then have a decision to make after their rookie contracts up about whether they will stay loyal to the draft city or "take their talents" somewhere else.

Cities like Milwaukee, Cleveland, Toronto and others really only have one way to acquire this elite talent - through the draft. This is because teams don't usually trade the elite level players. This is because the franchises with the elite players can pair that player with a decent supporting group and the franchise has a realistic shot at a title every year. Very rarely will a team w/ Dwight Howard or Tim Duncan lose 50 games (unless the rare circumstances of injuries like David Robinson in '96 and Dwayne Wade in '07).

So the small market dilemma begins because teams don't want to trade the elite players and elite players don't want to go to small market franchises through free agency. Sacramento had enough money to pay a max free agent, but did anybody even suggest James, Wade, Bosh, or even some of the lesser stars could end up there? The Kings were filtered out of the conversation before it even started just because they are the Kings.

Now we have small market teams w/ limited options in acquiring talent. They can't OVERPAY in free agency because the elite players are worth every penny of a max contract, and that's even if a mid-market could convince a elite player to come to their city. They can give a star (not a superstar) a max contract, eating up their cap space, but they can't lure a superstar to their city. The draft is basically the ONLY real option.

This creates the situation where teams are tanking seasons. Teams want to better their chances of landing elite talent and the only way to do that is to get more ping pong balls. In a sense, the NBA is rewarding teams for losing by giving them an unequal chance of landing top picks based on how bad they do. Do you think teams would tank seasons if a team that just missed the playoffs had the same odds as the teams with the worst records? No, teams would be fighting for wins, not draft odds.

With teams tanking for top picks, the gap between the good teams and the bad teams is widening, especially when, in some cases, the bad teams are not even trying to win or get better. They are hoping to get the draft pick of all draft picks (LeBron, Duncan, Wall, Rose) that makes inept managing decisions not as much of a factor. When teams land the pick, they are almost certain to compete at a high level through the duration of the superstars rookie contract and any extensions he is willing to sign. So the bad teams are perpetually bad, actually fighting to stay bad so they have a chance at the lottery sweepstakes.

Then we have the mediocre teams that get stuck because their options are limited. The Atlanta Hawks inked Joe Johnson to massive deal this summer. They were a team in league contention, but not necessarily a title contending team. They throw max money at Johnson, restricting future player movement just to keep the same team intact that wasn't really in contention anyway. What are there other options? Under bidding on Johnson, letting another team poach him away? Then they are back to rebuilding and going through the same scenario when Josh Smith and Al Horford come to the end of their contracts. The Hawks need an elite player to get over the hump. However, they are too good to draft one, and none of the teams w/ elite players are in rush to deal theirs.

Then there is the lottery within the lottery. Not all lotteries are equal, Ask Toronto. Bargnani is not a terrible player but it was just a watered down draft. There was no Rose, Duncan or LeBron that can turn a franchise around without much help. So teams aren't only competing for draft odds, there making an even more concerted effort when the draft prize is larger.

So this is the flawed logic of the way the NBA is set up. Good teams need to be super efficient and penny wise to become great without rebuilding, great teams are often great due to uncontrollable circumstances (a lucky ping pong bounce, injuries derailing an entire season, cities being a desirable location for free agents, etc.), and bad teams are fighting hard to stay bad - so a ping pong ball can make them good or great.

Obviously the NBA can't make every team equal in market size or city desirability. But they can put a system in place that doesn't encourage losing. In my opinion, it all starts with the lottery. This needs to change.

Toronto Raptors Off-Season Shake-Up: The Opportunities and Possibilities Surrounding the NBA's 2010 Off-Season

Toronto is stuck with a plethora of bad contracts. $63mil in payroll for next season includes Bosh's $17mil. With Bosh's contract clean off the books, the Raptors would have room to sign a free agent, but not a max player. It may be hard to lure free agents to play for the Raptors, but to have Jose Calderon (3 years, near $30mil), Andrea Bargnani (5 years, $50mil), Jarrett Jack (3 years, $15.5mil), and Hedo Turkoglu (4 years, $44mil) tying up all your cash doesn't give the team much hope (not to mention Reggie Evans and Marcus Banks will together make $10mil next season and only produced 8ppg combined in 2009-10).

The Raptors have 4 unrestricted free agents this summer, none of them have much bearing on the state of the franchise. Amir Johnson, Antoine Wright are serviceable players but replaceable. Rasho Nesterovic and Patrick O'Bryant only played a combined 53 games and produced very little. Aside from picking up role players with exception money, Toronto's off-season will be hinged on Chris Bosh. Initially, Bosh's opt out determines the next move for the Raptors. It will be hard to bring in a quality free agent without over paying when the core group is Turkoglu, Calderon, Bargnani and Jack. No offense to the these guys, but that doesn't stack up with most other teams nucleus of players. Now, back to Bosh...



I have a hard time picturing any scenario where Bosh stays in Toronto. Granted, he can earn the most money over a long-term deal with the Raptors but I don't think that outweighs the darkness that is the future of the franchise with it's current pieces. With an excess of teams having money to blow, too many intriguing scenarios exist with Bosh in the middle. If, or when, he opts out, he will be the premier available post player of the summer, much more highly sought after than even Amare, if he becomes available. To form a truly unstoppable combination of players, skill sets have to compliment each other. That's why Bosh/Wade or LeBron/Bosh makes infinitely more sense than Wade/LeBron. Only one guy can iso at the top of the key with the ball, and both LeBron and Wade are accustomed to being that guy. But here are some interesting scenarios that could possibly play out with Bosh in the off-season as a free agent.

Re-sign
-Bosh stays in Toronto, regrets it for the next 6 years, and has to watch Hedo hobble around on defense until he can become a free agent again (which is when he would not make the same mistake of re-signing with the Raptors)

Free Agent Market
-Bosh signs with OKC adding solidifying their youthful optimism. He fits under the cap and fits a true need for the Thunder who have little or no scoring presence underneath. Westbrook, Durant, Green, Bosh, Ibaka and Green could do some serious damage as they continue to mature. The only problem with this scenario is how small of a market OKC is. LeBron can go anywhere and be a huge star. Bosh needs a huge market to elevate himself into super-stardom and it is clear he wants that with his weird YouTube videos and Twitter shenanigans. Given how under-exposed OKC was last season, it doesn't quite fit Bosh's attention seeking actions.

-Bosh goes to Miami to play with a re-signed Dwayne Wade. Miami would still have enough money to add more parts, Ray Allen or Mike Miller could be a nice compliment to Wade and Bosh. This dynamic duo, with a few helpers, could have a stretch of 4-5 years of in the top few teams in the East.

-Bosh goes to New York, forming a super squad with other big name free agents. Wade, James, Joe Johnson could all make sense, but none of them signing seems more likely to me.

Sign and Trade
The sign and trade seems to be the most likely scenario for Bosh. Using a sign and trade he could go to a contender which is what I would assume Bosh would like the most. As long as the traded salaries match up, he is fair game to all teams. The sign and trade is beneficial to both teams and even more beneficial than usual for Toronto since they have have historically had a hard time persuading free agents to sign with them even when they over pay. This way they don't have to convince another player Toronto is the right spot for them, it's $17mil worth of some other person's sales job. And there should be a bevy of teams that would trade some valuables to get Bosh. Here is a few sign and trade possibilities:
-Bosh to NY for a package that includes David Lee
-Bosh to LA for a package that includes Andrew Bynum
-Bosh to Dallas, Houston (Bosh is form Texas), Chicago
-Bosh to Cleveland in a package that includes Mo Williams, Delonte West and JJ Hickson. The Cavs would probably have to take on some bad contracts (take your pick, but most likely Turkoglu) too to make this work

Who makes sense in the draft (pick 13): Ed Davis (UNC), Hassan Whiteside (Mar), Ekpe Udoh (Baylor), or Danial Orton (Ky). Toronto lack front court toughness. Both Bosh and Bargnani and softies. I expect a focus on defensive toughness and an inside presence whether Bosh stays of leaves.

These videos cracks me up, especially the first one. It does have some foul language so be warned


Bosh and Colangelo have another chat