Flawed NBA Logic: The Mid-Market Dilemma

There are only a handful of elite, championship level players in the NBA at any given point (This is Kobe, LeBron, Dwight, Duncan, Paul - the top 10-15 players of the league). Those players usually find their first team through the draft, and then have a decision to make after their rookie contracts up about whether they will stay loyal to the draft city or "take their talents" somewhere else.

Cities like Milwaukee, Cleveland, Toronto and others really only have one way to acquire this elite talent - through the draft. This is because teams don't usually trade the elite level players. This is because the franchises with the elite players can pair that player with a decent supporting group and the franchise has a realistic shot at a title every year. Very rarely will a team w/ Dwight Howard or Tim Duncan lose 50 games (unless the rare circumstances of injuries like David Robinson in '96 and Dwayne Wade in '07).

So the small market dilemma begins because teams don't want to trade the elite players and elite players don't want to go to small market franchises through free agency. Sacramento had enough money to pay a max free agent, but did anybody even suggest James, Wade, Bosh, or even some of the lesser stars could end up there? The Kings were filtered out of the conversation before it even started just because they are the Kings.

Now we have small market teams w/ limited options in acquiring talent. They can't OVERPAY in free agency because the elite players are worth every penny of a max contract, and that's even if a mid-market could convince a elite player to come to their city. They can give a star (not a superstar) a max contract, eating up their cap space, but they can't lure a superstar to their city. The draft is basically the ONLY real option.

This creates the situation where teams are tanking seasons. Teams want to better their chances of landing elite talent and the only way to do that is to get more ping pong balls. In a sense, the NBA is rewarding teams for losing by giving them an unequal chance of landing top picks based on how bad they do. Do you think teams would tank seasons if a team that just missed the playoffs had the same odds as the teams with the worst records? No, teams would be fighting for wins, not draft odds.

With teams tanking for top picks, the gap between the good teams and the bad teams is widening, especially when, in some cases, the bad teams are not even trying to win or get better. They are hoping to get the draft pick of all draft picks (LeBron, Duncan, Wall, Rose) that makes inept managing decisions not as much of a factor. When teams land the pick, they are almost certain to compete at a high level through the duration of the superstars rookie contract and any extensions he is willing to sign. So the bad teams are perpetually bad, actually fighting to stay bad so they have a chance at the lottery sweepstakes.

Then we have the mediocre teams that get stuck because their options are limited. The Atlanta Hawks inked Joe Johnson to massive deal this summer. They were a team in league contention, but not necessarily a title contending team. They throw max money at Johnson, restricting future player movement just to keep the same team intact that wasn't really in contention anyway. What are there other options? Under bidding on Johnson, letting another team poach him away? Then they are back to rebuilding and going through the same scenario when Josh Smith and Al Horford come to the end of their contracts. The Hawks need an elite player to get over the hump. However, they are too good to draft one, and none of the teams w/ elite players are in rush to deal theirs.

Then there is the lottery within the lottery. Not all lotteries are equal, Ask Toronto. Bargnani is not a terrible player but it was just a watered down draft. There was no Rose, Duncan or LeBron that can turn a franchise around without much help. So teams aren't only competing for draft odds, there making an even more concerted effort when the draft prize is larger.

So this is the flawed logic of the way the NBA is set up. Good teams need to be super efficient and penny wise to become great without rebuilding, great teams are often great due to uncontrollable circumstances (a lucky ping pong bounce, injuries derailing an entire season, cities being a desirable location for free agents, etc.), and bad teams are fighting hard to stay bad - so a ping pong ball can make them good or great.

Obviously the NBA can't make every team equal in market size or city desirability. But they can put a system in place that doesn't encourage losing. In my opinion, it all starts with the lottery. This needs to change.

How Filthy? Antoine Walker Edition

How filthy is inspired to take a look at some recent players at their finest hour in the NBA. Too often I tend to remember athletes as the aged veteran or wounded star. How Filthy? will focus on the prime cut of meat from a players career. Like Larry Bird said in 1986, "All I know is people tend to forget how great the older great players were. It'll happen that way with me, too." Let's not let that happen. Let's remember just how filthy these players were.

Antoine Walker has led career filled with high peaks and deep valleys. A McDonald's All-American, standout at The University of Kentucky, and 3 All-Star Game selections are equally as impressive as his ability to launch 3-pointers at an unconscionable rate, his predilection for turning the ball over (led the league in '97-98), or the way he went bankrupt after earning over $108 million during his NBA career.

Walker peeked in the 2000-01 season at the age of 24. While playing 42 minutes a game for the Celtics, Antoine scored a career high 23.4 ppg, had a career high 5.5 apg, and was rebounding at a rate of 8.9 per contest. His notoriously low shooting percentage fell right at his career average of a shade over 41%. He managed to lead the league in 3-point attempts in 3 consecutive years despite never even approaching a respectable 3-point %. To be more blunt, Walker was a forward who took 10+ free throws in only 3 games during his peak season, but attempted 10+ 3-pointers in 22 games. One game in 2001, Walker attempted 17 3s, making 6. These are staggering stats!

This grainy video is practically a "how to" instruction manual for having a terrible shooting percentage. This trick shot goes in despite being defended by 3 players


Here is a video of Walker highlights that includes college highlights, pro highlights, and plenty of Walker's patented "shimmies"

This video makes you wonder how the dunking college player turned into a lethargic NBA player that fell in love with the 3-point shot

The YouTube vault was relatively empty for Antoine. The highest returned results were for his ridiculous shimmy

So how filthy was Antoine Walker? 2 trash cans of filth for a waste of potential and inefficiency

How Filthy? Harold Miner Edition

How filthy is inspired to take a look at some recent players at their finest hour in the NBA. Too often I tend to remember athletes as the aged veteran or wounded star. How Filthy? will focus on the prime cut of meat from a players career. Like Larry Bird said in 1986, "All I know is people tend to forget how great the older great players were. It'll happen that way with me, too." Let's not let that happen. Let's remember just how filthy these players were.

Harold Miner was dubbed "Baby Jordan" for his outstanding dunking abilities. The 6'5" guard jumped to the NBA after posting a 23.5 scoring average (and getting named 1st team all-american) through his 3 years at USC. With the "Baby Jordan" nickname, a high college scoring average, and being selected 12th overall by the Miami Heat in 1992, expectations were high.

Unfortunately, Miner could never fulfill those expectations. Statistically speaking, Miner was an NBA no show. He only lasted 4 years in the league and topped out at 10.5 points per game in his second year. He didn't care to much for rebounding or passing, and had limited range on his jumper, attempting only 15 3-pointers in his first 2,700+ minutes of NBA action. This is a problem when playing the position of "shooting" guard.

Miner is most well-known for winning the dunk contest in both 1993 and 1995. Here is a condensed video of the '95 contest

Observations from that video:
-Tony Dumas choked in the moment. If I remember correctly (I was 9 so I could definitely be wrong), Dumas kept pumping up his super-secret dunk he was going to pull off in the finals to win the contest. So it became a slight problem when he couldn't even land a dunk in the first round, effectively eliminating himself

-Miner had some legit hops. Maybe his nickname would have suited him better if it solely focused on Jordan's dunking ability and disqualified the title from any other part of Jordan or Miner's games. Harold "Dunks like Jordan, plays like Jon Koncak" Miner - it doesn't really roll off the tongue but you get the point

-Alonzo Mourning's suit should be outlawed

-Isaiah Rider is probably high... right now

Anyway, Miner was traded from the Heat to the Cavs, and was cut by the Cavs after seeing limited minutes. He attempted to sign with the Raptors in 1996 but didn't make the cut. Since his retirement Miner has given very few interviews and stays far removed from the spotlight.

Here is a 10 minute mix of Miner, just in case you can't fall asleep


So how filthy was Harold Miner? Miner avoids 0 trash cans and 1/2 a trash can by impressing me in the dunk contest. 1 whole trash can out of 5 of filth!


PS. Harold could not even get a full bar of dunk rating in NBA Jam... Haters

Movie Review: SonicsGate

This is a heart-wrenching documentary about the Seattle Sonics getting relocated to Oklahoma City. I was pleasantly surprised how much I enjoyed this film. It is a bit dry and long but I don't mind those type of films. For the short attention span people, it may bore you to death. There is a lot of lawyer speak and passionate fans expressing themselves in angry and emotional ways.

It started out with a short history which I found interesting. I remembered Kemp, Payton, Schrempf, and George Karl, but learning about Lenny Wilkins, Spencer Haywood, Jack Sikma, Tom Chambers and the other old schoolers improved my overall basketball history knowledge. Where else can you learn about these guys without having seen them first-hand? We find out about the Sonics early championship, and the passion of the sports town. They tell the story behind the incompetent and dishonest ownership groups buying and selling the team.

We find out that Key Arena is not very functional for the NBA business model. With Key Arena not being able to generate revenue to make a profit, even if it were operating at max capacity every night, and the tax payers not wanting to pay for a new arena, the relocation topic becomes almost unavoidable. So the team gets sold to a group from Oklahoma City, with no investors from Seattle in the group, and the former ownership is surprised that the team may be relocated. Hmmmmmm, who would have thunk that?

But the new owner of the Sonics gets caught in a web of lies that basically show the city that he had no intentions of keeping the team in Seattle. He then tries to lie his way out of those lies, which almost never works (especially for me, personally). This leads to court case in which Seattle is trying to keep the team due to the new ownership being full of shit.

This is where one of the real losers of the film steps in. The Mayor of Seattle comes to the rescue of the city. Then he gets promptly turned into the goat (not G.O.A.T.) of the film. He championed the people until a few bucks for the city were waved in his face. Before a verdict was reached in the court case, the mayor settles the case out of court for money for the city. Some people on the documentary think that it was possible the team could have remained in Seattle after the verdict. I'm not so convinced this was the case.

The film also tends to paint David Stern as a prick. It just seems like sour grapes. Just because he wasn't behind the effort for the Seattle to keep their faulty business model, they clip together a bunch of scenes that make him look grumpy and unsympathetic.

Overall, I would recommend the film. I don't have too many other documentaries to compare it to, but I'll give it 4 of 5 stars. The length of the film (2:00) could turn some people off, but my advice is: if it looks interesting to you, give it a shot.

Here is the film in it's entirety

How Filthy? Tom Chambers Edition

How filthy is inspired to take a look at some recent players at their finest hour in the NBA. Too often I tend to remember athletes as the aged veteran or wounded star. How Filthy? will focus on the prime cut of meat from a players career. Like Larry Bird said in 1986, "All I know is people tend to forget how great the older great players were. It'll happen that way with me, too." Let's not let that happen. Let's remember just how filthy these players were.

Most people remember Tom Chambers as a dunking machine. He was also the league's first unrestricted free agent, switching from the Seattle Sonics to the Phoenix Suns. I find this interesting due to the recent circus of free agency were going through. Chambers was drafted 8th overall in 1981 by the San Diego Clippers out of Utah after averaging 18.5 points as a senior.

Chambers was a four time all-star, and even won the All-Star Game MVP in his first appearance during the 1986-87 season. Despite his reputation of being selfish (his teammates were pretty outspoken about this), he and Kevin Johnson formed a near unstoppable duo with the Suns. Check out some of their chemistry together.



Tom's best statistical season came during his second year in Phoenix during the '89-90 campaign. He scored 27.2 points per game (4th in the league) and grabbed 7 rebounds a game, while shooting over 50% from the field. Teaming with Kurt Rambis inside, the Suns had one of the more goofy looking front courts in NBA history. During the 1990 season Tom had games of 56 and 60 points. Here is footage of the 60 point game against his former team, The Sonics.



Here is a few of his huge dunks




So how filthy is Chambers? 2/5 trash cans of filth

How Filthy? Glen Rice Edition

How filthy is inspired to take a look at some recent players at their finest hour in the NBA. Too often I tend to remember athletes as the aged veteran or wounded star. How Filthy? will focus on the prime cut of meat from a players career. Like Larry Bird said in 1986, "All I know is people tend to forget how great the older great players were. It'll happen that way with me, too." Let's not let that happen. Let's remember just how filthy these players were.

As a 19 year old college sophomore, Glen Rice took 12 3-pointers in 1,056 minutes for the Michigan Wolverines. As a senior, he attempted 192 and made 99 (51.6%) in 1258 minutes. He also took home the Final Four Most Outstanding Player Award and National Championship. This a quite a leap in confidence and skill. I always remember him as a sharpshooter, and after watching some video, I was absolutely correct. I thought he relied more on catch and shoot 3-pointers more than he actually did, only making 6 or more 3-points in 16 games during his career. Instead he had a variety of options in his arsenal, including a post-up and curling off-ball screens

His peak was at the age of 29 during the 1996-97 season for the Charlotte Hornets. However, his career high came at age 27 when he poured in 56 points on 20 of 27 shooting from the field and 7 of 8 on 3-pointers. Take a look



But back to '96-97. During this season he posted a career high for points per game with 26.8, ranking 3rd in the NBA behind Michael Jordan and Karl Malone. He led the league in minutes played and 3-point percentage. He earned an All-NBA second team selection and generally lit it up night in and night out. His 16 games of 35 points or more prove that. Pictured above is Rice holding his All-Star Game MVP Trophy. He earned it by scoring 26 points for the Eastern Conference during the mid-season classic. He did have to chuck quite a bit to get the trophy, shooting 24 shots in 25 minutes. The classic moment of this season was Rice and Jordan going shot for shot in a head to head match-up. Watch until the end and you will not be disappointed!



Rice got one championship title with the Lakers in 2000. His production fell off sharply after he left LA. He played for 4 teams in his final 5 seasons, bouncing around to the Lakers, Knicks, and Rockets before being waived by the Clippers. To express his fall from the elite even further, he was traded late in his career with 3 2nd round picks for John Amaechi and one 2nd round pick. That is just stunning


So how filthy is Glen Rice? 3/5 Trash Cans of filth

Was I The Last To Know?

LeBron, the best basketball player on the planet, switched teams last night. If I am the first person bringing that to your attention, congratulations for coming out of that coma. I don't believe he handled the whole ordeal very well, but how do you handle something of that magnitude perfectly? After the decision, my Facebook was buzzing about the decision. Almost every post and comment pertained to LeBron, which got annoying after a while. Then, someone would have a completely random status like, "Pamela Waters interesting article for those of you interested in gender/sexuality issues..." That pissed me off even more. Why doesn't she give LeBron the attention he so desperately wanted for himself? I was kind of assuming my news feed was like a LeBron James exclusive channel and then I get my focus broken by that bit of random information. Pissing me off!

I live in Northeastern Ohio and I assumed all along Lebron was going to stay in Cleveland. I figured, he just wants everyone to talk about and salivate over him for a few months, then he can return to his goal of winning a championship in Cleveland. I got information from newspapers, blogs, ESPN, LeBron related tweets, and blogs about LeBron related tweets. I became so immersed in LeBron rumors that I couldn't determine any kind of accurate reporting from something a guy with his own blog (like me) could make up with his wildest imagination. So my judgment was clouded. I read stories with my heart. I rationalized everything from the perspective that he wouldn't ever leave. I wholeheartedly believed he was staying. My first bit of doubt came when the ESPN poll showed that 47 states believed LeBron was going to the Heat (hmmmmm, maybe something is up). Still, at that point it wasn't a done deal to me. Not until I heard it from The Kings mouth.

Then he dropped the bomb. I wondered, "was I the last person to know this was about to happen?" The answer to that is a resounding 'yes'. I predetermined LeBron's decision based on emotions, mine and his perceived emotions. However, LeBron made his decision without his emotions. This was a decision where less research was actually more. The more I read and the more I thought, the more I got confused.

But I can't hate on the way this guy plays basketball. I can't hate on the way he promoted himself and captured peoples attention that would have otherwise refused to care. I can't hate on him because he left - Cleveland doesn't own him. But I can hate on how poor of a speaker he is. With as much respect for LeBron as I have (a hell of a lot), he is terrible at expressing himself and even using words correctly. Let's take a look:

LeBron says this to start the interview, "This whole free-agent experience, I'm looking forward to it."

I was assuming the whole free agent experience was ending in four minutes with his decision? Oh, there are other players in the league aside from LeBron? Ok, I get it now

"The last time I changed my mind was probably in my dreams, and when I woke up this morning I knew it was the right decision."

Mark my words: dream interpretation is going to become vogue. Sometimes I have dreams when I sleep, too. Sometimes I even follow my dreams. However, my dreams don't determine an entire state's economy and the landscape of any professional sports leagues. I can picture LeBron's dream now. He, Bosh and Wade are all giant centaurs, riding from NBA city to NBA city, destroying everything in their path. They crush The Pringles guy, Mike D'Antoni, and his wizardry in New York before heading to Detroit to fight with the Gargoyle Charlie Villanueva, only stopping in Cleveland to pillage all the women and children and to relieve themselves. LeBron wakes up, and the decision is made.

When asked about the Cleveland fans feelings, LeBron says, "They can have mixed emotions, of course."

Now that we have your permission, Mr. King, our emotions are becoming extremely mixed

"Put the shoe on the other foot. If the Cavs would have got rid of me at one point, would my family burn down the organization? Of course not."

Umm, this one is debatable...

"If I draw a guy and Joel Anthony is under the rim, he has to make plays."

Spoiler alert: LeBron's first move as GM of Heat is to resign Joel Anthony

"One thing that you can't control is you never know. You never know"

Not if you learn, LeBron. If you learn what you don't know, you can control it

When asked if he had any doubts about his decision, his reply was, "No. I don't have any doubts at all."

So you just decided the morning of the interview to go to Miami after deliberating for months, and you have no doubts? I had doubts about what I ate for breakfast yesterday morning and the only consequence to that was the 350 calories I put in my body. Maybe once they go 82-0 next season I will believe that.

"It's been a huge -- it's been heavy on me a lot."

I think he was looking for the word burden, couldn't find it, and abandoned it mid analogy. But, hey, it happens to us all. However, In my dream (that led me to make this post) I nailed every question asked to me by Bill Simmons on the special programming show about me that was aired by ESPN The Ocho. Every stinking one!

"And like I said before, I just thank all those teams that have come to Cleveland and us have those interviews and have that process"

Problem 1: You never thanked all the teams before
Problem 2: That doesn't make sense

With all the poking fun and bitterness out of the way, I would like to point out one more thing. The trio of James-Wade-Bosh, if they play as a team and focus solely on wins, will be very, very good. I could see LeBron averaging 22-11-10 on a team that doesn't lose too often. And I really think Wade will lead them in scoring.

John Hollinger of ESPN estimated their win total at 61. Dave Berri of The Wages of Wins Journal estimates them at 55 - playing teams 3 against 5. Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference says the statistical plus/minus suggests they could win 68 games. My prediction, assuming they add a few solid role players, is that they break the linear equation of efficiency and win OVER 100% of their games. You heard it here first.

I'll be interested to see how they fill in the Heat roster. Do they add a point guard or just let James and Wade split the duties? Do they get a big center or run like hell with Bosh in the middle? Maybe they fill their open spots by bringing Mark Price and Brad Daugherty out of retirement, because the knife could go even deeper in Cleveland's back.

Closing Thoughts
What is Cleveland's next course of actions? Is Wally Szczerbiak still available?

Gilbert's open letter? He will regret that but I'm glad he called James out

Did they really think that involving the Boys and Girls Club would mitigate the damage? That's like trying to stop a freight train by throwing a new born baby at it. Sorry for that imagery.

Now I feel a lot better. Whew

Unassisted 3-pointers: A Love Story

Making a shot from 23 feet and 9 inches away from the basket (22' on the sides) in the NBA gets the team who shot the ball an extra point. However, shooting from that same distance off the dribble earns a player no extra points. So why on earth do some players insist on attempting 3s without a setup from a teammate or without their feet set? It's interesting to look back at the last 4 seasons of stats and see the usual suspects standing so far out from the rest of the league in regards to shooting unassisted 3-pointers. The list of habitual offenders include Gilbert Arenas, Baron Davis, Steve Nash, and LeBron James.

I liken Shooting 3s off the dribble or after an extended isolation period to an abused girlfriend. Despite being mistreated over and over again, she keeps coming back. It's like the Mountain Dew addicted kid living in the Appalachian Mountains - you're 14 and and your teeth are stained a brownish-yellow, get the clue! Enough with the comparisons, we should get down to business.

The NBA average for 3-point assist % in 2010 was 84.5%. Arenas ranked highest out of the 4 players I'm focusing on with 50.8% assisted. Nash ranked lowest in the league for volume shooters with only 26.6% of his 3-pointers assisted. I was shocked Nash was so aberrant, but I assume it is because he does nearly ALL the creating for the Suns. That seems to be a common thread with guys who shoot 3-pointers off the dribble: they all have large roles as play makers for their respected teams. Arenas, Davis, Nash, and James all ranked in the top 20 in assists per game in 2010.

When healthy, no player chucks 3s at a more inefficient rate than Arenas. He was injured for most of 2008 and 2009, then suspended in 2010. He still managed to give a a large enough sample size in 2010 to make us sure that, back from his injury, he still had his horrendous shot selection. But to see Arenas at his finest (or worst, depending your disposition toward selfish ball hogs), we have to travel back to 2007. In '07 Arenas was 2nd in the league at 3-point attempts (7.9 attempts per game – which, in a normal year would have led the league). Only Ray Allen attempted more (8.1 per), but 80% of Allen's 3s came off the pass, compared to 58% of Arenas' 3s. As you might suspect given Arenas' large volume of unassisted scores, his 3FG% and FG% both ranked below the league average for '07. Breaking the numbers down, Arenas shot almost 250 3-pointers (over 3 per game) off the dribble or after a prolonged isolation in '07. If he gets back anywhere near this level of gunmanship, you would have to think it would be stunting John Wall's growth as a player.


Humor FAIL ^^^^^^^^^

It shouldn't surprise you that Baron Davis attempted the most 3s per game of his career in his contract year of 2007-08. What should surprise you is the fact that the Clippers dished out all that cash to a guy who has consistently performed with below average efficiency for his entire career, even in his contract year. Davis' career 3-point % is a shade below 32%, over 3% below the league average for 3-point shooting. It would only make sense that a below average shooter would want to get his feet set before he launches 3s. It doesn't make enough sense to Davis. In '07, '08, and '09 Davis shot close to 50% of his 3s without an assist, while converting only 32% of his attempts. In 2010 he showed he really doesn't give a crap by shooting 60% of his 3s without an assist, while converting a putrid 27%. This is combination of a stubborn player, bad coaching, and a general disregard for the success of his team. Baron, I like your funky dress style, your caveman beards and funny videos, but stop shooting your team out of games. Just stop it.


Long jumpers are LeBron James' drug. When healthy, LeBron loves to hoist 3-pointers, especially to try and clinch wins in the final moments of games. Every one remembers LeBron pull-up 3 in transition against the Celtics towards the end of the season to try and win the game in the closing seconds. Despite having scored 40 points during the game, none of which on a 3-pointer (despite attempting 8), LeBron went for the pull-up, potential game winning 3-pointer on a 2 defenders on 1 LeBron James fast break, a scenario in which, despite challenging common logic, LeBron usually has success attacking the rim. And this is not atypical for LeBron to do. He loves the low percentage 3 towards the end of games.

From 2007-10 LeBron's 3s attempted per game has rose by one per game. Granted, he can't drive all the way to the basket on every single possession, but LeIsolation tends to result in a long jump shot far too often. The extra 3 per game was made up with his pull-up 3s. With 66% of LeBron's 3-pointers coming off isolation or off the dribble (down from 58% the previous season), LeBron ranked 2nd in the league behind Nash in % of unassisted 3-point shots. But this is the enigma that is LeBron James. Supremely evolved but so much room for more improvement.

Nash shot 42.6% from the 3-point line despite being assisted on the lowest percentage of his 3s out of all the bulk shooters in the NBA. How could this be? Every other guy that ventures outside the world of stand still shooting, percentages begin to decrease. Nash, on the other hand, shoots near the top of the league in percentage AND in degree of difficulty. The problem is Nash shoots only 3.6 3-pointers per game. I'm convinced it is because he is too unselfish. Don Nelson used to mandate that Nash shoot at least 10 times a game when he played for Dallas. It still didn't work. I would love to see Nash jack shots at the pace of some of the leagues other notorious chuckers.

Steve Nash would likely break the record of 12 3-pointers made in a game (shared between Kobe Bryant and Donyell Marshall) if he was selfish enough to hoist 21 3s like Damon Stoudamire did in April of '05 against the Warriors. Ray Allen holds the single season record for 3-pointers made with 269. It took him 653 attempts to set that record. Nash's career high for 3-pointers attempted is 343 in one season. If Nash launched at the pace of Allen and kept his career percentage, he would (and could) set the record for 3-pointers made in a season. But he is too valuable as a play maker to turn away from the team concept to set these frivolous records.


The polar opposite of the player that shoots long shots off the dribble is the player who only catches and shoots. I would figure that throughout the course of a season a guy would find himself in circumstances where he has to shoot 3-pointers off the dribble – he is just TOO wide open, the shot clock is winding down, etc. Seven players in the NBA that shoot a high volume (4+ attempts per game) of 3-pointers rarely ever shoot unless they received a pass from a teammate. Shane Battier was assisted on 99% of his 3-pointers! Andrea Bargnani was up in Battier's territory with 98.3% of his 3s coming off the pass. Rashard Lewis was 5th in the NBA last season with 5.9 3-point attempts per game, and 97.7% of all those 3s were created by a teammate.

Channing Frye, Martell Webster, Anthony Morrow and Mike Bibby all had an assisted 3-point rate of 95% or higher. The outlier of the group would have to be the point guard Bibby. One would assume that Bibby would at least fall near the league average in assisted 3-point %, like most other point guards, just because he is forced to shoot unassisted 3s due to handling the ball so much. Bargnani, Frye, and Lewis are big men with very little ball skills. Battier sticks to role and rarely deviates, or even has much interest in doing anything except making it as difficult as possible for the man he is guarding to score. Morrow is an exceptional shooter but has yet to develop much else to his game. He is also aided by playing for the Warriors. I'm sure guys don't close out as hard on Morrow when they are winning by 20 points. Also, Monta Ellis only passes if you quadruple team him, leaving Morrow WIDE open. With Webster's chucker reputation, I was a bit surprised he made the list.

In conclusion, what we should have learned from this piece is that the unassisted 3-pointer is a fairly inefficient shot. The audacity of these players to keep shooting these type of shots is almost as admirable as it is comical. The only guy who does it a proficient rate is Nash, and he doesn't even shoot at nearly the large volume of the other players. What we have is the inefficient shooters hoisting up tough shots. Or is it solid shooters hoisting up shots with too high of a degree of difficulty? Either way, next time you see a guy hoist a 3-pointer off the dribble, think of Arenas, Davis, Nash and James. Actually, think of the weak side rebounder, because he is likely the one benefiting the most from the attempt.

Nash and Davis do have something in common... This video

Looking at Camby's Extension with the Blazers

The 35 year old Marcus Camby was traded to Portland near the trade dead line to sure up Portland's often injured front line of Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla. He then inked a 2 year extension with the Blazers last month for over $17M. That extension also includes up to $5M in performance based incentives. When I saw the initial figures, I was shocked. Camby, a former #1 overall pick out of UMass, couldn't be worth $9M as 37 year old.. or could he?

Camby has led the league in blocked shots per game 4 times during his career and was the Defensive Player of the Year in '06-07. And this year, at age 35, he led the league in rebound rate, finishing slightly ahead of Dwight Howard. Additionally, he finished 5th in the league in blocked shots per game while managing to foul at a rate lower than everyone ahead of him in blocks. Considering his value as a rebounder and shot blocker, he still managed to finish above the league average in charges taken per game. Despite finishing this season 2.5 points below his career point average of 10.4 points per, his defensive value is still top notch.

Camby was basically given away by the Nuggets to the Clippers for a 2nd round pick because of his contract. His contract was too big for the Nuggets, despite winning the Defensive Player of the Year Award for them. Now the Blazers inked him to terms just slightly less than what the Nuggets were paying him when he was 2 years younger. And is it worth it? You bet it is. Every penny

Here is video of Camby recording a triple- double with the Nuggets. He had 10 blocks in the game and even splashed a 3-pointer

Milwaukee Bucks Off-Season Shake-Up: The Opportunities and Possibilities Surrounding the NBA's 2010 Off-Season

I admire what the 2009-2010 Bucks accomplished. Without an overwhelming amount of talent, the Bucks played their way into the 5th seed in a weak Eastern Conference. Their best player is clearly Andrew Bogut, who suffered a horrific injury that kept him out of the postseason. They still managed to show some fight in the playoffs, losing 4-2 to the #3 seeded Atlanta Hawks. They were tough, defensive minded team and that comes a lot from the their coach, Scott Skiles. While I believe the NBA Coach of the Year should have been Scott Brooks from OKC, Skiles deserved some serious consideration. With that being said, where can they go from here?

Seven players have expired contracts from last season and 2 have Early Termination Options (ETO). Of those 2, Michael Redd will not opt-out of his $18.3M he is scheduled to receive for next season. John Salmons has the other ETO and would receive $5.8M if he were to keep his current contract. I think he will terminate his contract and look for more money on the open market since this is the year with lots of available cash. Salmons scored 20 points per game on 47% shooting for the Bucks after being acquired from the Bulls at the trade deadline. Those numbers warrant a bigger contract than the mid-level exception, $5.8M.

Of the unrestricted free agents, Luke Ridnour would be the hardest for the Bucks to replace. He was an above average back-up that earned $6.5M. I could even argue that he was better than Brandon Jennings last season but that is for another post. The list of replaceable expiring contracts includes Kurt Thomas, Primoz Brezec, Royal Ivey, and Jerry Stackhouse. Stackhouse played a solid role last year but it's hard to pencil in a role player in his mid-late 30s into a franchise's future plans.

Which brings us to contracts still on the books next season. Redd's $18.3M could be a valuable trade chip for next season, as well as Dan Gadzuric's $7.3M. They retain Bogut, a top 5 center in the league, for the next 4 years. Rounding out the rest of the roster is a nucleus of mildly paid players that are solid building blocks for the future, with the exception of Charlie Bell, who is limited in his effectiveness. Mbah a Moute, Jennings, Eliyasova, and Delfino all bring something to the table of value.

With Salmons off the books, the Bucks would have under $10M to play with this off-season. That's enough to bring back Ridnour, sign another role player, and get a player or two with exception money. The problem is, who wants to play in Milwaukee if they aren't being over-paid or aren't a few hustle plays away from the D-League? They over-paid for Bell. Redd re-signed because they could offer more money and more shots. Eliyasova does some nice things but he is hardly what I would call a free agent splash. Desmond Mason was a bigger free agent signing in the Bucks recent history! Everyone else on the roster has been assembled via draft or trade.

The best option for Milwaukee is to try and turn Redd and Gadzuric into something of substance. It's only a matter of time before teams start stock piling available cash to try to lure Carmelo or Chris Paul away in the summer of 2011. If they could get value like Houston did for McGrady, it's a step towards filling the roster with enough talent to contend. They currently hold the 15th pick in the upcoming draft. They should target some athletic wings to try to improve their transition offense. They are a defensive team, which hinders their tempo, but scoring becomes a lot simpler when a team can get out in the open court and get some easier buckets.

Who makes sense in free agency: In reality, anyone who is willing to come to Milwaukee and not leave them with a horrible contract 2 years down the road.

Who makes sense in the draft: Xavier Henry (Kansas), Avery Bradley (Texas), Paul George (Fresno St), or Hassan Whiteside (Marshall). Whiteside could take Thomas' minutes. Henry, Bradley and George would fill the role of a much needed athlete.

Tough Covers - 1970s Proficient and Prolific Scorers

Mike Barr, an ABA defensive specialist, got assigned to cover the toughest offensive players during his pro basketball career. The 6-3, 180 pound guard played 5 seasons in the crazy ABA after being drafted in the 13th round of the 1972 NBA draft by the Chicago Bulls. When I asked him who the toughest defensive assignments were, Mike gave me 5 names.

1. Pete Maravich
“Pistol” Pete tops the list of toughest covers. Averaging 44.2 points per game throughout his entire college career is why this guy became legendary. To get all his points he had to shoot... a lot! Guarding Maravich meant no plays off. He took slightly over 38 shots a game in college which means their were no breaks, no time to relax. He offensive creativity was unparalleled at the time. No one else was making the moves that Maravich was. He had great range but played before the advent of the 3-point line. For all those reasons Maravich ranks #1 on Mike Barr's toughest covers list.
Barr: “he scored 54 on me one night. He would just dangle the ball like he wasn't looking, baiting me to go for steals, and then he would attack after I took the bait.”


2. George Gervin
“The Iceman” and Mike crossed paths in the ABA. Gervin played 4 seasons in the ABA and 10 more in the NBA. Two times in his NBA career Gervin eclipsed the 30 points per game mark for the entire season. He had career averages of 26.2 points per game in the NBA and 21.9 points per game in the ABA. He had the record for the most scoring titles in the NBA before Jordan came along and broke his record. He once scored 33 points in a single quarter of an NBA game! His signature shot was the finger roll. Most players do finger rolls for lay-ups but Gervin was known to perform them from as far out as the foul line. This Hall of Fame inductee and a top 50 greatest NBA players of all-time ranks #2 in Mike Barr's toughest covers list.
Barr: “I played with him for the Virginia Squires and against him when he was with San Antonio. I thought I was quicker than him but he would shoot right over me like I wasn't even there.”

3. Austin Carr
Barr faced Carr 2 times in Duquesne vs Notre Dame match-ups. Mike was proud he held Carr under his scoring average in one matchup when Carr got 34 points, below his average of 34.4 points per game. Carr would get NCAA AP player of the year in his final season at Notre Dame and still is the school's all-time leading scorer. He was drafted by the Cavs with the #1 overall pick in the 1971 draft and played 10 years in the NBA, including 9 with the Cavs. Known as “Mr. Cavalier”, He averaged a respectable 15.4 points per game for his career and is ranked 3rd in Cavs franchise history in scoring behind LeBron James and Brad Daugherty.
Barr: “He was so physical and he got the ball a lot so there was no time to rest. He didn't run around too much, mostly parking down in “the office” and using his body.”

4. Doug Collins
Collins is the newest head coach of the Philadelphia 76ers and spent all 8 of his NBA seasons as a player for the Philly franchise after they drafted him with the 1st selection of the 1973 NBA Draft. He was a five time NBA All-Star and finished with a 17.9 points per game scoring average. In college at Illinois State, Collins averaged 29.1 points per game and was named 2nd Team All-American his senior year.
Barr: “He was taller and quicker than me. I could usually out-quick taller guys, but not collins”



5. Johnny Davis
Davis was a bit of an NBA journeyman, being traded 4 times in his pro career. He was drafted by Portland in 1976 but had his best scoring years after being traded to Indiana. With NBA career averages of 12.9 points per game and 4.5 assists per game, it's clear Davis could kill you with the shot or the pass.
Barr: “He was just super quick.”

Honorable Mention: Calvin Murphy, John Williamson, Walt Frazier, Earl Monroe

A Look At Contracts

I know, I know, this has been done a million times. That doesn't mean I can't have fun with the subject too. Here's a list of some bad contracts broken down into a few different categories. I tried not to evaluate players still on their rookie contracts. I also steered away from expiring contracts because those actually have value even if the player is being grossly over-paid (I just couldn't resist a few of these expiring contracts).


Cashing in and coasting
Baron Davis - 3 more years at $13,050,000, $13,950,000, $14,850,000
Davis has never been the same since inking his new deal. Is it the long-term stability, his knees, or the absence of the Warriors run-n-gun style? Either way his production and efficiency have taken a nose dive since moving to LA.

Elton Brand - 3 more years at $15,959,099, $17,059,726, $18,160,354
The often injured Brand is 6 points and 3.5 rebounds below his career averages. And he is only getting older

Loul Deng - 4 more years at $11,355,850, $12,341,275, $13,326,700, $14,312,125
Deng actually beat his career number this season. Still, he eats a lot of cap space to produce at the rate of a 3rd option. I guess you could make the case that he should be able to relax after earning enough money to put him in the top .5 % of money earners in his home country.

Contract Year Dedication
Matt Carroll - 3 years remaining at $4,300,000, $3,900,000, $3,500,000
Scoring 9 points per for the worst team in league (at the time ) in his contract year earned him this fat contract. Carroll, an alleged 3-point marksman, hasn't shot over 27% from the arc in the 3 seasons since he signed this deal. Additionally, I have yet to see a white guy pull of wearing an arm sleeve, but nice try, Matt.

Larry Hughes - expiring contract for $13,655,268 paid by the Kings
Hughes chucked his way into a contract worthy of being LeBron's sidekick for the Cavs. The only problem has been Hughes chucking his way out of rotations ever since he signed this deal. He has played for 5 teams since signing, and I'm sure all the teams he went to thought they were getting a better player than he always turned out to be.

Andrei Kirilenko - One year left at $17,822,187
Kirilenko's points plunged 7 points after signing this deal in '06. He has been steadily improving his numbers since but not to the level of his contract year. To his credit, if was getting paid $17M and was married to a Russian Pop Star that allows me to cheat, I would do a lot crazier things than mentally checking out of my profession and cutting Mohawks in my hair.

Big Contracts that take up big bench space
Mark Blount - expiring contract at season's end for $7,962,500
Earned almost $8M to stay at home

Erick Dampier - one year left at $13,075,000
He earned this fat contract putting up 12/12 for the Warriors. In the 6 years since then his best numbers have been 9/8.5. Obviously the Mavs didn't learn from this after offering Martin Gortat hard cash to produce the same type of numbers. Luckily the Magic matched Gortat's offer sheet and now it is their headache

Kenny Thomas - contract expires at season's end for $8,553,125
Played 26 games for the Kings, averaging 1.2 points per

If he did want to mettle, Obama may void these contracts
Matt Bonner - expiring contract at $3,240,380
Does the Collective Bargaining Agreement mandate a certain amount of the leagues salaries to go to white Americans?

Brian Scalabrine - expiring contract at $3,413,793
Does the Collective Bargaining Agreement mandate a certain amount of the leagues salaries to go to white Americans?

Jason Kapono - one year left at $6,641,440
Okay, Kapono can shoot. But with a career average of 19 minutes per, $6.6M seems like more of a stretch than the yoga instructor from Couples Retreat.


Fresh Ink
Desagana Diop - 3 more years at $6,478,600, $6,925,400, $7,372,200
Lasagna Flop is making serious loot for only playing 27 games and 261 minutes. If he were paid by the point, every bucket would earn him roughly $406,000!

Hedo Turkoglu - 4 more years at $9,800,000, $10,600,000, $11,400,000, $12,200,000
Turkododo wants out of Toronto! Well I'm sure they would oblige your request if they could find any takers. With his coring down over 5 points per and his efficiency below his already inefficient levels, Tukododo needs a change of scenery. It was obvious that the team was better with the low-profile, less paid options off their bench in Sonny Weems and Antoine Wright.

Shawn Marion - 4 years at $7,305,500, $7,975,932, $8,646,364, $9,316,796
The aging Marion is already 5 points per below is career averages. His age is showing in more ways that his hairline. He's not the worst player to have on your team but when his deal expires he will be 37 years old. Ouch!

WTF
Gilbert Arenas - 4 years at $17,730,694, $19,269,308, $20,807,922, $22,346,536
As selfish and inefficient as they come. They may be able to sucker some poor team into taking this contract off their hands. It would still be a rip-off even if the team acquiring Arenas gave up next to nothing.



Peja Stojakovic - one year at $15,336,000
Peja got old fast. His contract may be a trade chip next season for the cash strapped Hornets. His efficiency has been declining and his field goal % are hovering right around 40%.

Luke Walton
The Walton name carries this contract for everything beyond the veterans minimum. To be fair, Walton averaged 11 points in 33 minutes in his contract year for the talent starved Lakers of 06-07.

Book Review: The Art of a Beautiful Game by Chris Ballard

Chris Ballard's book, The Art of a Beautiful Game, was an interesting and pleasurable read for a hoops junkie like me. It took me only about a week to read. He goes in depth on the greatest athletes the NBA has. The book is broken down into chapters that focus on common themes - rebounding, free throws, Kobe's killer instinct, etc. I would recommend it for serious NBA fans. It is interesting enough for the casual fan to enjoy but the insight's Ballard offers are wouldn't be a well received without a strong base of basketball knowledge. I rate it 4 1/2 out of 5 stars.

Things I found interesting or notable


Kobe
-Ballard says he has the highest killer instinct in the NBA
-Kobe studied NBA tapes sent by his grandparents while he was in Italy w/ his father, who played professionally
-Kobe took the singer Brandy to his high school prom
-Brian Shaw said the only player he saw work as hard as Kobe was Larry Bird
-Ballard said deep down Kobe is a basketball nerd

Shooters
-Steve Kerr retired w/ the highest 3-point FG % (45.4)
-Legend has it that Brent Barry made 97/100 3s in practice. Additionally, Chris Mullin once made 194 consecutive jumpers in a workout
-In 2005 Antoine Walker shot 645 3s, 100 more than the next closest player in attempts, and made 34.4%
-Jordan made only 5 of 35 3s when he participated in the 3-point Shootout - the worst score in the history of the contest
-Rashard Lewis said he could beat Ray Allen "maybe one out of 100 times" in a shooting contest

Rebounding
-Dwight Howard is 7', 265 lbs and can bench 225lbs 25 times. He has a reach of 9 1/2 ft with his 37" vertical
-Bill Russell averaged 22.5 rebounds for his career and Wilt Chamberlain averged 27.2 rpg in his best rebounding season
-No NBA player has got 27 rebounds in a game since 2002
-Danny Fortson said Shaq is the hardest guy to box out in the NBA
-Phil Jackson said Dennis Rodman was the most remarkable athlete he ever coached - not Jordan or Kobe

Dunking
-Jason Kapono is 6'8" and has never dunked in an NBA game
-Only 4% of the American population is over 6'2"
-Shawn Kemp said dunking was "better than sex"
-The dunk was banned from NCAA basketball from 1967-76

Free Throws
-Wilt missed 10 of 10 from the free throw line one game - in his 100 point game, he made 28 of 32
-Nearly 1 of 5 points in the NBA is a free throw
-71 year old Tom Amberry made 2,750 consecutive free throws, a Guiness World Record. Amberry hit over 500 consecutive FTs on 431 separate occasions
-2 years in a row Dwight Howard shot better from the field than the free throw line

Shane Battier
-Shane Battier's goal is to limit the guy he is guarding to under 44% shooting.
-Battier does this by playing the %s and angles.
-His greatest defensive weapon is contesting without fouling
-Battier said Kevin Martin is the best in the league at getting to the free throw line

Idan Ravin
-Idan Ravin is the "Hoops Whisperer". He trains LeBron, Kevin Martin, Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, Loul Deng and more
-He doesn't kiss players ass or tell them how good they are. He told LeBron he can't dribble
-Some stablished coaches don't like him because he is not part of the hoops fraternity
-Ravin usually does 45 minute training sessions w/ drills focusing on game situations with an element of conditioning

The Evolution of the Center Position
David Robinson is 7'1", 265lbs with small forward skills and a 34 inch waist. He averaged 21.1 ppg and 10.6 rpg for his career
-Dirk Nowitzki was traded on draft day for Tractor Traylor and Pat Garrity. Steve Nash was also acquired by Dallas for Pat Garrity, a #1 draft pick and 2 other players. Essentially they acquired 2 future MVPs for bench players
-Dirk became the 1st 7-footer to be in the top ten in the NBA in 3-point attempts and makes. He was also the 1st 7-footer to win the 3-point Shootout
-Yao Ming's parents were encouraged to mate by the Chinese Government. His parents were both very good basketball players. Yao was 5'5" at age 10! Yao never dorve a ca before coming to the US and is known for erratic driving skills. He is also the best back-to-the-basket center at free throws (near 86%)

Blocks
-During typical NBA season there are nearly 8,000 dunks - more than 3 per game. Only an average of about 300 dunks get blocked per season
-Manute Bol, the 7'7" Sudenese player, once blocked 8 shots in 1 quarter. He had more blocks than points in 8 of his 10 years in the NBA
-Mark Eaton blocked 456 shots in 1994-95, an average of 5.6 per game
-Reggie Evans had 18% of his shots blocked in one season
-In 2005-06 Chris Bosh blocked 74 shots without 1 going out of bounds
-Alonzo Mourning blocked 27 shots in a high school game

LeBron
-LeBron was never dedicated to weight training until 2008, 5 years after he was in the NBA. Now he does mostly core exercises instead of bulk lifts like the bench press
-LeBron covers baseline to baseline in 9-10 steps. The average NBA player needs 11-14
-LeBron says he jumps half a foot higher of his left foot than off 2 legs
-LeBron's hands are 9 1/4 inches long and he has been able to palm a basketball since 10th grade

Denver Nuggets Off-Season Shake-Up: The Opportunities and Possibilities Surrounding the NBA's 2010 Off-Season

Denver is in a tough spot. They have talent and are contending team. They have little room to shake up their roster, but not enough talent to be very confident about beating the Lakers, Spurs, Suns and all the other solid teams in the West. They had the 8th highest payroll last season and the vast majority of that will return next season.

The don't have draft picks either. Denver traded Charlotte's 1st round pick they acquired last season to Minnesota for the draft rights of Ty Lawson. They also traded their own 1st round pick for Steven Hunter (Whoops!). They traded their 2nd round pick of next month's draft to New York for Renaldo Balkman. This doesn't just mean that Denver doesn't have much of a chance at acquiring new young talent, but it also means they don't have picks to leverage in other trades.

The Nuggets was nearing $75M last season and $73M will return. Eating up big chunks of payroll are Carmelo ($17.1M), Kenyon Martin ($16.5M), Chauncey Billups (13.1M), and Nene (11.3M). Martin's contract is a problem. His contract is a actually a player option but I could not see any way he declines this option since his open market value is significantly lower. Carmelo has a player option after next season and Billups has a team option after next season. So if they were going to blow up their roster, after next season would be the time.



<<< Paid



Denver does have their full mid-level exception and bi-annual exception. After using their mid-level on Chris Anderson last season, they should look to make this money count this off-season. Bi-annual money can only do so much considering the most relevant bi-annual contract given out last season was to Flip Murray. They could upgrade at shooting guard with their mid-level, which could be Ray Allen or Ronny Brewer. JR Smith is too inconsistent and Arron Afflalo is only Arron Afflalo.

Another route they could take firming up their front court. Nene and Martin are both injury prone and no one wants to see Johan Petro getting playoff minutes next season. I like Udonis Haslem with this group or Tyrus Thomas. It is also important to remember that the mid-level and can split up between multiple players. So Ronny Brewer and Udonis Haslem could both potentially come as free agents.

What are their other options? JR Smith would draw some interest because of his potential, shooting ability, and athleticism. I'm sure most teams would want to stay away after considering his history of bad behavior. Additionally, I would pose the question: Is it too early to turn the PG position over to Ty Lawson? He showed promise but probably isn't ready to be a championship level NBA PG. Billups value is not going to get any higher and it took a hit with some of his ghostly performances this post-season. But he is a championship level PG, and many teams would give up some goods for his services.

It may be time for a shake-up for the Nuggets. The West isn't getting weaker anytime soon and the core of this Nuggets team has given it 2 solid tries already. If they don't mix things up, it will be more of the same for Denver.


This type of athleticism can off-set Smith's laundry list of legal offenses



Mbenga and Powell think he is ready to be THE point guard^^^

Rose Vs Westbrook: A Point Guard Comparison

Both 2nd year point guards are in the forefront of the new breed of NBA point guards. The new breed is the super athlete. The guy who isn't as statistically dominating in the college game as a Michael Beasley or Kevin Durant, but are a prized possession due to their size and athleticism. This trend is most evidently clear at the point guard position. Both Rose and Westbrook are listed around 6'3” and 190 pounds and have only one month separating them in age (Rose is a little over a month older than Westbrook). They play similar style of game which will be compared more in more depth throughout this article.

Westbrook had rather pedestrian college stats considering he was the 4th selection overall in the 2008 draft, 3 picks after the #1 overall selection, Derrick Rose. Westbrook entered the draft after his sophomore year at UCLA where he averaged 12.7 points per game in 33 minutes. His freshman year at UCLA was a learning season for Russell, only averaging 9 minutes a game and 3.4 points. This is an enormous jump from averaging 3.4 points per game as a freshman in college to averaging 16.1 points per game three years later for playoff team in the NBA. Part of this improvement should obviously be attributed to natural progression but what should not be over looked is the Russell's skill set being a better fit for the NBA game. There are multiple factors why the NBA structure fits the athletic point guard more than the college game. These include the limited hand checking in the NBA, more space to maneuver with a longer 3-point line, the limited capabilities of NBA teams to implore an effective zone defense, and the fact that most NBA players are deadly shooters, making it harder to help and recover.

Rose was much more of an NBA prospect coming out of high school than Westbrook. He certainly had some hype surrounding him but Michael Beasley was putting up huge numbers as a freshman at Kansas State during that same season. I remember thinking Beasley was the better player at the time. Boy, was I wrong! Beasley hasn't figured the NBA out yet and Rose is on the edge of super-stardom. Rose was ranked 5th in the recruiting class of 2007. Names ahead of him on the list of high schoolers include OJ Mayo, Kevin Love, Eric Gordan and the aforementioned Beasley. If Rose were to of stayed all 4 years at Memphis, he, like Kyle Singler, would be entering his final NCAA season next year. Rose showed enough in his only year at Memphis to get picked 1st overall. There was a debate between Rose and Beasley for the #1 pick but Rose's hometown team, the Chicago Bulls [1], had the selection. It was situation where it made as much sense to pick Rose as it did to not want to overlook the hometown boy who could come back to haunt the franchise. So Rose was the pick of Chicago, followed by Beasley by Miami, Mayo by Minnesota (later traded to Memphis), and then Westbrook by Oklahoma City.

That brings us to the NBA performance of Westbrook and Rose. Both players increased their scoring averages from their final college season to their rookie year in the NBA and then again from their rookie season to their second year in the NBA. What makes them different and in what ways are they similar? Comparing these two is made a lot easier because they play a similar amount of minutes and use a similar amount of possessions per game, with Rose slightly ahead in both areas. This has to do with Rose already being the man in Chicago while Westbrook is sitting in the passenger seat in OKC with Kevin Durant driving the car. I'll examine 5 important criteria to evaluate the players against each other. Those 5 categories are scoring, passing, ball control, rebounding/defense and shooting.

Scoring – At the current stage of each of these 2 player's development, Rose is a much better scorer. It shows through in averages and efficiency. While Rose scores more, he also shoots more shots. But the big edge in scoring is the efficiency in which Rose scores. He shot nearly 48.9% from the field to Westbrook's 41.8%. Rose also plays well with others. Rose was assisted on 32% of his made baskets compared to Westbrook at 20%. Westbrook will find it is not too difficult to score as many points as Rose if he would let others create for him. But one disturbing trend I noticed with Rose is his knack for avoiding contact when driving to the basket. I noticed it when I watched him play and the numbers backed me up. Despite attempting 177 more shots than Westbrook, Rose shot 84 less free throws. Part of this is Rose shooting more jump shots than Westbrook. Another part is Rose shying away from contact and using his floater instead of finding contact from a defender [2].
Scoring Advantage: Rose

Passing – Both players blazing speed makes them a terror in transition. Westbrook has elevated his passing game in his sophomore season in the NBA, averaging 8 assists per night. Rose averaged 6 assists per game, down .3 per game from his rookie average of 6.3 per. I believe that the best assist (did you really think all assists were created equally?) possible is an assist at the rim or for a dunk. In this area Westbrook puts Rose to shame. Westbrook assisted on 123 more baskets close to the rim or dunks than Rose did this season. Jump shots can be arbitrary (unless it is Kyle Korver or a few others receiving the pass), dunks and lay-ups are made fairly consistently in the NBA. My point being that both players can pass, but Westbrook's assists are easier to convert.
Passing Advantage: Westbrook

Ball Control – By ball control I'm focusing on turnovers. Both players are required to do the majority of the ball-handling for their team, night in and night out. Both teams play at a similar pace and get nearly the same amount of possessions per game (with Chicago getting slightly more). Both players made similar amount of ball-handling turnovers but Westbrook was 2 times more likely to charge than Rose. I guess Rose avoiding body contact on drives actually helps him as a ball-handler. I was surprised to see that Rose averaged half of a turnover less than Westbrook per game. With Rose already being the man of his city, he has the responsibility to take shots or create when the shot clock is winding down. Westbrook has Durant to take these shots in OKC, leaving Russell to do most of his damage in the first 15 seconds of the shot clock. I would think this would make Rose more turnover prone because he is forced to create even when the openings are not there. But he was not. Rose is more of a steady ball-handler, compared to Westbrook who seems to be more of a high risk, high reward handler.
Ball Control Advantage: Rose

Defense and rebounding – This is an area Westbrook really excels at. Rose has the tools to defend and rebound but seems rather inept. Westbrook was 10th in the league in steals at 1.3 per game while Rose averaged .5 less. This is a lot of steals over the course of an entire season. Westbrook averages an entire rebound more than Rose per game but this difference is made up in offensive rebounds. Westbrook is a remarkable offensive rebounder for point guard. He gets more offensive rebounds than Kevin Garnett and Antawn Jamison! He gets more offensive rebounds than his 6'11” teammate, Kevin Durant, and his 6'9” teammate, Jeff Green! Another key factor to comparing these two players' defense is how their teams fair when they are not on the court. The Thunder are almost 5 points per 100 possessions worse on defense when Westbrook is out of the game. The Bulls give up roughly the same amount of points whether Rose is on the court or not.
Defense and Rebound Advantage: Westbrook

Shooting - Neither player can shoot with range, both shooting under 25% from the 3-point line. Westbrook hoists over one 3-pointer per game. Why? Someone needs to take a page out of Josh Smith's book and cut out the 3-point shot. As far as shot selection, both players score equally as well on inside and close range shots. The difference in points per game between the two comes from Rose having a more effective jumper. Rose attempts 68% of his shots on jumpers and scores 11.1 points per game on these jumpers. Westbrook uses 60% of his shots on jumpers but only scores 6.1 points per game. This works out to a difference of 10% in eFG% [3]. That's a pretty staggering difference.
Shooting Advantage: Rose

Using the 5 criteria I find most important in evaluating point guards, Rose takes 3 out of 5. I think this would be the general consensus opinion without all the analysis, especially since Rose played on TV a lot more often than Westbrook so the public got a better look at him. Westbrook definitely does some things better than Rose at this point in his career. Plus, the things Rose does well are not so much better than Westbrook that the gap couldn't be closed in the next few years of development. So who would I take? I think you can't go wrong with either of them.


[1] The Bulls won the draft lottery with only a 1.7% chance of getting the #1 pick. This is the second largest upset in draft lottery history when the Orlando Magic received the #1 pick in 1993 with only a 1.5% chance. The Magic used the pick to select Chris Webber but traded his rights to Golden State for Anfernee “Penny” Hardaway.

[2] Nice link about Rose not getting to the free throw line:
http://blog.shamsports.com/2010/04/derrick-rose-isn-very-good-at-drawing.html

[3] eFG% is a basketball statistic (shooting metric) that adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. For example, suppose Player A goes 4 for 10 with 2 threes, while Player B goes 5 for 10 with 0 threes. Each player would have 10 points from field goals, and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage (50%). The formula is: eFG% = (FG + 0.5*3P) / FGA