Thursday, June 24, 2010

Unassisted 3-pointers: A Love Story

Making a shot from 23 feet and 9 inches away from the basket (22' on the sides) in the NBA gets the team who shot the ball an extra point. However, shooting from that same distance off the dribble earns a player no extra points. So why on earth do some players insist on attempting 3s without a setup from a teammate or without their feet set? It's interesting to look back at the last 4 seasons of stats and see the usual suspects standing so far out from the rest of the league in regards to shooting unassisted 3-pointers. The list of habitual offenders include Gilbert Arenas, Baron Davis, Steve Nash, and LeBron James.

I liken Shooting 3s off the dribble or after an extended isolation period to an abused girlfriend. Despite being mistreated over and over again, she keeps coming back. It's like the Mountain Dew addicted kid living in the Appalachian Mountains - you're 14 and and your teeth are stained a brownish-yellow, get the clue! Enough with the comparisons, we should get down to business.

The NBA average for 3-point assist % in 2010 was 84.5%. Arenas ranked highest out of the 4 players I'm focusing on with 50.8% assisted. Nash ranked lowest in the league for volume shooters with only 26.6% of his 3-pointers assisted. I was shocked Nash was so aberrant, but I assume it is because he does nearly ALL the creating for the Suns. That seems to be a common thread with guys who shoot 3-pointers off the dribble: they all have large roles as play makers for their respected teams. Arenas, Davis, Nash, and James all ranked in the top 20 in assists per game in 2010.

When healthy, no player chucks 3s at a more inefficient rate than Arenas. He was injured for most of 2008 and 2009, then suspended in 2010. He still managed to give a a large enough sample size in 2010 to make us sure that, back from his injury, he still had his horrendous shot selection. But to see Arenas at his finest (or worst, depending your disposition toward selfish ball hogs), we have to travel back to 2007. In '07 Arenas was 2nd in the league at 3-point attempts (7.9 attempts per game – which, in a normal year would have led the league). Only Ray Allen attempted more (8.1 per), but 80% of Allen's 3s came off the pass, compared to 58% of Arenas' 3s. As you might suspect given Arenas' large volume of unassisted scores, his 3FG% and FG% both ranked below the league average for '07. Breaking the numbers down, Arenas shot almost 250 3-pointers (over 3 per game) off the dribble or after a prolonged isolation in '07. If he gets back anywhere near this level of gunmanship, you would have to think it would be stunting John Wall's growth as a player.


Humor FAIL ^^^^^^^^^

It shouldn't surprise you that Baron Davis attempted the most 3s per game of his career in his contract year of 2007-08. What should surprise you is the fact that the Clippers dished out all that cash to a guy who has consistently performed with below average efficiency for his entire career, even in his contract year. Davis' career 3-point % is a shade below 32%, over 3% below the league average for 3-point shooting. It would only make sense that a below average shooter would want to get his feet set before he launches 3s. It doesn't make enough sense to Davis. In '07, '08, and '09 Davis shot close to 50% of his 3s without an assist, while converting only 32% of his attempts. In 2010 he showed he really doesn't give a crap by shooting 60% of his 3s without an assist, while converting a putrid 27%. This is combination of a stubborn player, bad coaching, and a general disregard for the success of his team. Baron, I like your funky dress style, your caveman beards and funny videos, but stop shooting your team out of games. Just stop it.


Long jumpers are LeBron James' drug. When healthy, LeBron loves to hoist 3-pointers, especially to try and clinch wins in the final moments of games. Every one remembers LeBron pull-up 3 in transition against the Celtics towards the end of the season to try and win the game in the closing seconds. Despite having scored 40 points during the game, none of which on a 3-pointer (despite attempting 8), LeBron went for the pull-up, potential game winning 3-pointer on a 2 defenders on 1 LeBron James fast break, a scenario in which, despite challenging common logic, LeBron usually has success attacking the rim. And this is not atypical for LeBron to do. He loves the low percentage 3 towards the end of games.

From 2007-10 LeBron's 3s attempted per game has rose by one per game. Granted, he can't drive all the way to the basket on every single possession, but LeIsolation tends to result in a long jump shot far too often. The extra 3 per game was made up with his pull-up 3s. With 66% of LeBron's 3-pointers coming off isolation or off the dribble (down from 58% the previous season), LeBron ranked 2nd in the league behind Nash in % of unassisted 3-point shots. But this is the enigma that is LeBron James. Supremely evolved but so much room for more improvement.

Nash shot 42.6% from the 3-point line despite being assisted on the lowest percentage of his 3s out of all the bulk shooters in the NBA. How could this be? Every other guy that ventures outside the world of stand still shooting, percentages begin to decrease. Nash, on the other hand, shoots near the top of the league in percentage AND in degree of difficulty. The problem is Nash shoots only 3.6 3-pointers per game. I'm convinced it is because he is too unselfish. Don Nelson used to mandate that Nash shoot at least 10 times a game when he played for Dallas. It still didn't work. I would love to see Nash jack shots at the pace of some of the leagues other notorious chuckers.

Steve Nash would likely break the record of 12 3-pointers made in a game (shared between Kobe Bryant and Donyell Marshall) if he was selfish enough to hoist 21 3s like Damon Stoudamire did in April of '05 against the Warriors. Ray Allen holds the single season record for 3-pointers made with 269. It took him 653 attempts to set that record. Nash's career high for 3-pointers attempted is 343 in one season. If Nash launched at the pace of Allen and kept his career percentage, he would (and could) set the record for 3-pointers made in a season. But he is too valuable as a play maker to turn away from the team concept to set these frivolous records.


The polar opposite of the player that shoots long shots off the dribble is the player who only catches and shoots. I would figure that throughout the course of a season a guy would find himself in circumstances where he has to shoot 3-pointers off the dribble – he is just TOO wide open, the shot clock is winding down, etc. Seven players in the NBA that shoot a high volume (4+ attempts per game) of 3-pointers rarely ever shoot unless they received a pass from a teammate. Shane Battier was assisted on 99% of his 3-pointers! Andrea Bargnani was up in Battier's territory with 98.3% of his 3s coming off the pass. Rashard Lewis was 5th in the NBA last season with 5.9 3-point attempts per game, and 97.7% of all those 3s were created by a teammate.

Channing Frye, Martell Webster, Anthony Morrow and Mike Bibby all had an assisted 3-point rate of 95% or higher. The outlier of the group would have to be the point guard Bibby. One would assume that Bibby would at least fall near the league average in assisted 3-point %, like most other point guards, just because he is forced to shoot unassisted 3s due to handling the ball so much. Bargnani, Frye, and Lewis are big men with very little ball skills. Battier sticks to role and rarely deviates, or even has much interest in doing anything except making it as difficult as possible for the man he is guarding to score. Morrow is an exceptional shooter but has yet to develop much else to his game. He is also aided by playing for the Warriors. I'm sure guys don't close out as hard on Morrow when they are winning by 20 points. Also, Monta Ellis only passes if you quadruple team him, leaving Morrow WIDE open. With Webster's chucker reputation, I was a bit surprised he made the list.

In conclusion, what we should have learned from this piece is that the unassisted 3-pointer is a fairly inefficient shot. The audacity of these players to keep shooting these type of shots is almost as admirable as it is comical. The only guy who does it a proficient rate is Nash, and he doesn't even shoot at nearly the large volume of the other players. What we have is the inefficient shooters hoisting up tough shots. Or is it solid shooters hoisting up shots with too high of a degree of difficulty? Either way, next time you see a guy hoist a 3-pointer off the dribble, think of Arenas, Davis, Nash and James. Actually, think of the weak side rebounder, because he is likely the one benefiting the most from the attempt.

Nash and Davis do have something in common... This video

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Looking at Camby's Extension with the Blazers


The 35 year old Marcus Camby was traded to Portland near the trade dead line to sure up Portland's often injured front line of Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla. He then inked a 2 year extension with the Blazers last month for over $17M. That extension also includes up to $5M in performance based incentives. When I saw the initial figures, I was shocked. Camby, a former #1 overall pick out of UMass, couldn't be worth $9M as 37 year old.. or could he?

Camby has led the league in blocked shots per game 4 times during his career and was the Defensive Player of the Year in '06-07. And this year, at age 35, he led the league in rebound rate, finishing slightly ahead of Dwight Howard. Additionally, he finished 5th in the league in blocked shots per game while managing to foul at a rate lower than everyone ahead of him in blocks. Considering his value as a rebounder and shot blocker, he still managed to finish above the league average in charges taken per game. Despite finishing this season 2.5 points below his career point average of 10.4 points per, his defensive value is still top notch.

Camby was basically given away by the Nuggets to the Clippers for a 2nd round pick because of his contract. His contract was too big for the Nuggets, despite winning the Defensive Player of the Year Award for them. Now the Blazers inked him to terms just slightly less than what the Nuggets were paying him when he was 2 years younger. And is it worth it? You bet it is. Every penny

Here is video of Camby recording a triple- double with the Nuggets. He had 10 blocks in the game and even splashed a 3-pointer

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Milwaukee Bucks Off-Season Shake-Up: The Opportunities and Possibilities Surrounding the NBA's 2010 Off-Season

I admire what the 2009-2010 Bucks accomplished. Without an overwhelming amount of talent, the Bucks played their way into the 5th seed in a weak Eastern Conference. Their best player is clearly Andrew Bogut, who suffered a horrific injury that kept him out of the postseason. They still managed to show some fight in the playoffs, losing 4-2 to the #3 seeded Atlanta Hawks. They were tough, defensive minded team and that comes a lot from the their coach, Scott Skiles. While I believe the NBA Coach of the Year should have been Scott Brooks from OKC, Skiles deserved some serious consideration. With that being said, where can they go from here?

Seven players have expired contracts from last season and 2 have Early Termination Options (ETO). Of those 2, Michael Redd will not opt-out of his $18.3M he is scheduled to receive for next season. John Salmons has the other ETO and would receive $5.8M if he were to keep his current contract. I think he will terminate his contract and look for more money on the open market since this is the year with lots of available cash. Salmons scored 20 points per game on 47% shooting for the Bucks after being acquired from the Bulls at the trade deadline. Those numbers warrant a bigger contract than the mid-level exception, $5.8M.

Of the unrestricted free agents, Luke Ridnour would be the hardest for the Bucks to replace. He was an above average back-up that earned $6.5M. I could even argue that he was better than Brandon Jennings last season but that is for another post. The list of replaceable expiring contracts includes Kurt Thomas, Primoz Brezec, Royal Ivey, and Jerry Stackhouse. Stackhouse played a solid role last year but it's hard to pencil in a role player in his mid-late 30s into a franchise's future plans.

Which brings us to contracts still on the books next season. Redd's $18.3M could be a valuable trade chip for next season, as well as Dan Gadzuric's $7.3M. They retain Bogut, a top 5 center in the league, for the next 4 years. Rounding out the rest of the roster is a nucleus of mildly paid players that are solid building blocks for the future, with the exception of Charlie Bell, who is limited in his effectiveness. Mbah a Moute, Jennings, Eliyasova, and Delfino all bring something to the table of value.

With Salmons off the books, the Bucks would have under $10M to play with this off-season. That's enough to bring back Ridnour, sign another role player, and get a player or two with exception money. The problem is, who wants to play in Milwaukee if they aren't being over-paid or aren't a few hustle plays away from the D-League? They over-paid for Bell. Redd re-signed because they could offer more money and more shots. Eliyasova does some nice things but he is hardly what I would call a free agent splash. Desmond Mason was a bigger free agent signing in the Bucks recent history! Everyone else on the roster has been assembled via draft or trade.

The best option for Milwaukee is to try and turn Redd and Gadzuric into something of substance. It's only a matter of time before teams start stock piling available cash to try to lure Carmelo or Chris Paul away in the summer of 2011. If they could get value like Houston did for McGrady, it's a step towards filling the roster with enough talent to contend. They currently hold the 15th pick in the upcoming draft. They should target some athletic wings to try to improve their transition offense. They are a defensive team, which hinders their tempo, but scoring becomes a lot simpler when a team can get out in the open court and get some easier buckets.

Who makes sense in free agency: In reality, anyone who is willing to come to Milwaukee and not leave them with a horrible contract 2 years down the road.

Who makes sense in the draft: Xavier Henry (Kansas), Avery Bradley (Texas), Paul George (Fresno St), or Hassan Whiteside (Marshall). Whiteside could take Thomas' minutes. Henry, Bradley and George would fill the role of a much needed athlete.

Monday, June 7, 2010

Tough Covers - 1970s Proficient and Prolific Scorers

Mike Barr, an ABA defensive specialist, got assigned to cover the toughest offensive players during his pro basketball career. The 6-3, 180 pound guard played 5 seasons in the crazy ABA after being drafted in the 13th round of the 1972 NBA draft by the Chicago Bulls. When I asked him who the toughest defensive assignments were, Mike gave me 5 names.

1. Pete Maravich
“Pistol” Pete tops the list of toughest covers. Averaging 44.2 points per game throughout his entire college career is why this guy became legendary. To get all his points he had to shoot... a lot! Guarding Maravich meant no plays off. He took slightly over 38 shots a game in college which means their were no breaks, no time to relax. He offensive creativity was unparalleled at the time. No one else was making the moves that Maravich was. He had great range but played before the advent of the 3-point line. For all those reasons Maravich ranks #1 on Mike Barr's toughest covers list.
Barr: “he scored 54 on me one night. He would just dangle the ball like he wasn't looking, baiting me to go for steals, and then he would attack after I took the bait.”


2. George Gervin
“The Iceman” and Mike crossed paths in the ABA. Gervin played 4 seasons in the ABA and 10 more in the NBA. Two times in his NBA career Gervin eclipsed the 30 points per game mark for the entire season. He had career averages of 26.2 points per game in the NBA and 21.9 points per game in the ABA. He had the record for the most scoring titles in the NBA before Jordan came along and broke his record. He once scored 33 points in a single quarter of an NBA game! His signature shot was the finger roll. Most players do finger rolls for lay-ups but Gervin was known to perform them from as far out as the foul line. This Hall of Fame inductee and a top 50 greatest NBA players of all-time ranks #2 in Mike Barr's toughest covers list.
Barr: “I played with him for the Virginia Squires and against him when he was with San Antonio. I thought I was quicker than him but he would shoot right over me like I wasn't even there.”

3. Austin Carr
Barr faced Carr 2 times in Duquesne vs Notre Dame match-ups. Mike was proud he held Carr under his scoring average in one matchup when Carr got 34 points, below his average of 34.4 points per game. Carr would get NCAA AP player of the year in his final season at Notre Dame and still is the school's all-time leading scorer. He was drafted by the Cavs with the #1 overall pick in the 1971 draft and played 10 years in the NBA, including 9 with the Cavs. Known as “Mr. Cavalier”, He averaged a respectable 15.4 points per game for his career and is ranked 3rd in Cavs franchise history in scoring behind LeBron James and Brad Daugherty.
Barr: “He was so physical and he got the ball a lot so there was no time to rest. He didn't run around too much, mostly parking down in “the office” and using his body.”

4. Doug Collins
Collins is the newest head coach of the Philadelphia 76ers and spent all 8 of his NBA seasons as a player for the Philly franchise after they drafted him with the 1st selection of the 1973 NBA Draft. He was a five time NBA All-Star and finished with a 17.9 points per game scoring average. In college at Illinois State, Collins averaged 29.1 points per game and was named 2nd Team All-American his senior year.
Barr: “He was taller and quicker than me. I could usually out-quick taller guys, but not collins”



5. Johnny Davis
Davis was a bit of an NBA journeyman, being traded 4 times in his pro career. He was drafted by Portland in 1976 but had his best scoring years after being traded to Indiana. With NBA career averages of 12.9 points per game and 4.5 assists per game, it's clear Davis could kill you with the shot or the pass.
Barr: “He was just super quick.”

Honorable Mention: Calvin Murphy, John Williamson, Walt Frazier, Earl Monroe