Thursday, June 24, 2010

Unassisted 3-pointers: A Love Story

Making a shot from 23 feet and 9 inches away from the basket (22' on the sides) in the NBA gets the team who shot the ball an extra point. However, shooting from that same distance off the dribble earns a player no extra points. So why on earth do some players insist on attempting 3s without a setup from a teammate or without their feet set? It's interesting to look back at the last 4 seasons of stats and see the usual suspects standing so far out from the rest of the league in regards to shooting unassisted 3-pointers. The list of habitual offenders include Gilbert Arenas, Baron Davis, Steve Nash, and LeBron James.

I liken Shooting 3s off the dribble or after an extended isolation period to an abused girlfriend. Despite being mistreated over and over again, she keeps coming back. It's like the Mountain Dew addicted kid living in the Appalachian Mountains - you're 14 and and your teeth are stained a brownish-yellow, get the clue! Enough with the comparisons, we should get down to business.

The NBA average for 3-point assist % in 2010 was 84.5%. Arenas ranked highest out of the 4 players I'm focusing on with 50.8% assisted. Nash ranked lowest in the league for volume shooters with only 26.6% of his 3-pointers assisted. I was shocked Nash was so aberrant, but I assume it is because he does nearly ALL the creating for the Suns. That seems to be a common thread with guys who shoot 3-pointers off the dribble: they all have large roles as play makers for their respected teams. Arenas, Davis, Nash, and James all ranked in the top 20 in assists per game in 2010.

When healthy, no player chucks 3s at a more inefficient rate than Arenas. He was injured for most of 2008 and 2009, then suspended in 2010. He still managed to give a a large enough sample size in 2010 to make us sure that, back from his injury, he still had his horrendous shot selection. But to see Arenas at his finest (or worst, depending your disposition toward selfish ball hogs), we have to travel back to 2007. In '07 Arenas was 2nd in the league at 3-point attempts (7.9 attempts per game – which, in a normal year would have led the league). Only Ray Allen attempted more (8.1 per), but 80% of Allen's 3s came off the pass, compared to 58% of Arenas' 3s. As you might suspect given Arenas' large volume of unassisted scores, his 3FG% and FG% both ranked below the league average for '07. Breaking the numbers down, Arenas shot almost 250 3-pointers (over 3 per game) off the dribble or after a prolonged isolation in '07. If he gets back anywhere near this level of gunmanship, you would have to think it would be stunting John Wall's growth as a player.


Humor FAIL ^^^^^^^^^

It shouldn't surprise you that Baron Davis attempted the most 3s per game of his career in his contract year of 2007-08. What should surprise you is the fact that the Clippers dished out all that cash to a guy who has consistently performed with below average efficiency for his entire career, even in his contract year. Davis' career 3-point % is a shade below 32%, over 3% below the league average for 3-point shooting. It would only make sense that a below average shooter would want to get his feet set before he launches 3s. It doesn't make enough sense to Davis. In '07, '08, and '09 Davis shot close to 50% of his 3s without an assist, while converting only 32% of his attempts. In 2010 he showed he really doesn't give a crap by shooting 60% of his 3s without an assist, while converting a putrid 27%. This is combination of a stubborn player, bad coaching, and a general disregard for the success of his team. Baron, I like your funky dress style, your caveman beards and funny videos, but stop shooting your team out of games. Just stop it.


Long jumpers are LeBron James' drug. When healthy, LeBron loves to hoist 3-pointers, especially to try and clinch wins in the final moments of games. Every one remembers LeBron pull-up 3 in transition against the Celtics towards the end of the season to try and win the game in the closing seconds. Despite having scored 40 points during the game, none of which on a 3-pointer (despite attempting 8), LeBron went for the pull-up, potential game winning 3-pointer on a 2 defenders on 1 LeBron James fast break, a scenario in which, despite challenging common logic, LeBron usually has success attacking the rim. And this is not atypical for LeBron to do. He loves the low percentage 3 towards the end of games.

From 2007-10 LeBron's 3s attempted per game has rose by one per game. Granted, he can't drive all the way to the basket on every single possession, but LeIsolation tends to result in a long jump shot far too often. The extra 3 per game was made up with his pull-up 3s. With 66% of LeBron's 3-pointers coming off isolation or off the dribble (down from 58% the previous season), LeBron ranked 2nd in the league behind Nash in % of unassisted 3-point shots. But this is the enigma that is LeBron James. Supremely evolved but so much room for more improvement.

Nash shot 42.6% from the 3-point line despite being assisted on the lowest percentage of his 3s out of all the bulk shooters in the NBA. How could this be? Every other guy that ventures outside the world of stand still shooting, percentages begin to decrease. Nash, on the other hand, shoots near the top of the league in percentage AND in degree of difficulty. The problem is Nash shoots only 3.6 3-pointers per game. I'm convinced it is because he is too unselfish. Don Nelson used to mandate that Nash shoot at least 10 times a game when he played for Dallas. It still didn't work. I would love to see Nash jack shots at the pace of some of the leagues other notorious chuckers.

Steve Nash would likely break the record of 12 3-pointers made in a game (shared between Kobe Bryant and Donyell Marshall) if he was selfish enough to hoist 21 3s like Damon Stoudamire did in April of '05 against the Warriors. Ray Allen holds the single season record for 3-pointers made with 269. It took him 653 attempts to set that record. Nash's career high for 3-pointers attempted is 343 in one season. If Nash launched at the pace of Allen and kept his career percentage, he would (and could) set the record for 3-pointers made in a season. But he is too valuable as a play maker to turn away from the team concept to set these frivolous records.


The polar opposite of the player that shoots long shots off the dribble is the player who only catches and shoots. I would figure that throughout the course of a season a guy would find himself in circumstances where he has to shoot 3-pointers off the dribble – he is just TOO wide open, the shot clock is winding down, etc. Seven players in the NBA that shoot a high volume (4+ attempts per game) of 3-pointers rarely ever shoot unless they received a pass from a teammate. Shane Battier was assisted on 99% of his 3-pointers! Andrea Bargnani was up in Battier's territory with 98.3% of his 3s coming off the pass. Rashard Lewis was 5th in the NBA last season with 5.9 3-point attempts per game, and 97.7% of all those 3s were created by a teammate.

Channing Frye, Martell Webster, Anthony Morrow and Mike Bibby all had an assisted 3-point rate of 95% or higher. The outlier of the group would have to be the point guard Bibby. One would assume that Bibby would at least fall near the league average in assisted 3-point %, like most other point guards, just because he is forced to shoot unassisted 3s due to handling the ball so much. Bargnani, Frye, and Lewis are big men with very little ball skills. Battier sticks to role and rarely deviates, or even has much interest in doing anything except making it as difficult as possible for the man he is guarding to score. Morrow is an exceptional shooter but has yet to develop much else to his game. He is also aided by playing for the Warriors. I'm sure guys don't close out as hard on Morrow when they are winning by 20 points. Also, Monta Ellis only passes if you quadruple team him, leaving Morrow WIDE open. With Webster's chucker reputation, I was a bit surprised he made the list.

In conclusion, what we should have learned from this piece is that the unassisted 3-pointer is a fairly inefficient shot. The audacity of these players to keep shooting these type of shots is almost as admirable as it is comical. The only guy who does it a proficient rate is Nash, and he doesn't even shoot at nearly the large volume of the other players. What we have is the inefficient shooters hoisting up tough shots. Or is it solid shooters hoisting up shots with too high of a degree of difficulty? Either way, next time you see a guy hoist a 3-pointer off the dribble, think of Arenas, Davis, Nash and James. Actually, think of the weak side rebounder, because he is likely the one benefiting the most from the attempt.

Nash and Davis do have something in common... This video
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